Real Estate Trends in the Wine Country, NorthBay and Redwood Coast Markets

Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for March 2024

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 50 closings in March 2024 compared to 61 last March and 36 last month.  This March we closed homes with a total value of $21 million compared to $25 million last year and $17 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG-MT in March was $416,000. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 77 pending sales with a value of $39 million dollars.  This is equal to our pending dollar volume at this time last year.  We have 116 active listings with a value of $42 million dollars.  We are 50% ahead of our volume of last year.  Our average listing price is $362,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of March.  Jessica Spencer in Clearlake led all agents with five closings.  Annalise von Borstel in Eureka had four closings

Chelsie Runnings, Carina De Herrera, Annaliese von Borstel (4), Brian Shea, Bernadette Luna-Notson, Cheryl Marinaro, Elizabeth Gonzalez, Liz Uribe (3), Jana Adams (2), Malachi Herrera (2), Michael Crain, Monica Kangas, Ray Hellgren (2), Rianne Pasquariello (2), Robert Davis, Sandra Riggs, Sheila Deignan, Thomas Harmon (3), Melinda Scalese, Paige Hotchkiss, Liz Manfree, Jessica Hooten (2), Julie Lee, Jessica Spencer (5), Mari Giblin (2) and The Ramos Team.

Congratulations to our Top Producers for the 1st Quarter of 2024:

Jessica Spence – Clearlake – Units and Listings

Jessica Hooten – Clearlake – $ Volume  

Paige Hotchkiss – Lakeport – Units and Listings

Carina De Herrera – Lakeport – $ Volume

Parmeeta Ghoman – Petaluma – Units and $ Volume 

Mari Giblin – Santa Rosa – Units and Listings 

Jana Adams – Santa Rosa – $ Volume

Elizabeth Uribe – Sebastopol – Units

Barbara Cronick – Bodega/Sebastopol – $ Volume

Sheila Deignan – Sonoma – Units 

Michael Crain – Sonoma – $ Volume

Annalise von Borstel – Eureka – Units and $ Volume

National Trends

There are more listings, more inventory, and more sales now then there were a year ago.  Sales are increasing because inventory is increasing.  Buyers have more properties to consider.  We are slowly emerging from the “supply constrained market” (seller’s market) where we have been for most of the last decade.  With growing inventory, there is less pressure on price appreciation and home price appreciation is now expected to be flat for 2024.  The Federal Reserve has softened their forecast of rate reductions for this year until they see better numbers in the economy.  This could keep mortgage rates in the 7-8% range for the balance of the year.  If rates are stable – the buyers will adjust to that.  What scares buyers is volatility in rates.  

North Bay Real Estate Trends for March 2024

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,095 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March.  Inventory is up 29% from a year ago (1,629) and it is 15% above the inventory last month (1,825).  As is expected, the inventory is beginning to rise into the Spring market.  There were 1,097 new sales for the month of March.  This number is 6% above a year ago (1,039) and 37% ahead of the pace of last month (802).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in March was $719,000 which is 3% above the $699,000 last March.

The “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) is considered a leading indicator of future prices for sales and closings.  Across the country, approximately 32% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  The higher the ratio, the more likely price appreciation will be less in the coming months.  In normal years, this ratio is in the 30% to 35% range with the higher part of the range being in the Fall months.  For March 2024, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are generally in-line with the national figures.  In the region combined, 27% of the homes sold in March had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 30% last month and 32% a year ago.  The numbers were 24% for Napa County, 22% for Sonoma County and 36% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was also 27% across the region.  This compares to 26% last month and 24% a year ago.  The numbers were 24% in Napa County, 43% in Sonoma County and 15% in Mendocino County.  Twenty-seven percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 58% had a lower selling price than the original list price upon closing.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of March stands at 556 homes.  This is 32% above the inventory in March 2023 (422) and it is 19% above the inventory last month (468).  We are experiencing the expected rise in inventory leading into the Spring market.  Fifty-four percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (300) currently are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (329) in Sonoma County in March were 3% above the pace of March 2023 (320) and they were 29% above the pace last month (255).  There is a 1.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 9 (Coastal Sonoma) to 106 (Cloverdale) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 53 days.  The median price of the 299 homes closed in March in Sonoma County was $816,000. This is 3% above the median price in March 2023 ($795,000).  The annualized average price ($1,019,780) of all homes sold in the County also increased 3% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 95% of their original list price.  In March, 43% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 22% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Forty-two percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than $2,500,000 (up from $2,000,000 last month).  There has been a 6% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (163) from 4/1/23 to 3/31/24 compared to 145 closings in the period 4/1/22 to 3/31/23.  This is the first increase in year over year luxury home sales in the past couple of years.  The inventory of luxury homes (138) is 59% above the inventory in March 2023 (87 homes) and it is 50% above the inventory last month (92).  The pace of new sales (12) in March is just below last year’s pace (13) and it is 100% above the sales pace last month (6).  The Days on Market for 10 Luxury Home closings was 80 days this March.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in March was 53 days.  There is a 11.5-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.7-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 90% of original list price.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 11 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 10 homes in inventory in March 2023 and 11 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales in March compared to four a year ago and one last month.  The Days on Market for the 2 homes that closed in March is just 9 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 57 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 50% above the inventory in March 2023 (38) and it is 19% above the inventory last month (48).  New sales in March (21) were 17% above the pace of sales in March 2023 (18) and they were 163% above the pace of sales last month (8).  There are 2.7-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 15 homes that closed in March is 43 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 14 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of March.  This is 18% below the inventory in March 2023 (17) and it is 22% below the inventory of last month (18).  New sales (25) were 32% above the sales pace of a year ago (19) and they were 92% above the pace of last month (13).  There were 25 new sales in the month when the month started with 18 units in inventory.  There is less than a one-month (0.6-month) supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the low $600,000’s up to $832,000.  The median price was $630,000 for the 14 homes that closed in March.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 44 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of March (56) is 17% above the inventory in March 2023 (48) and it is equal to the inventory last month (56).  There were 46 new sales for the month.  This is 28% above the sales in March 2023 (36) and it is 31% above the sales pace last month (35).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.2 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 48 homes that closed in March was $927,000.  This is 11% above the median price last March ($838,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 42 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of March (31) is 82% above the inventory in March 2023 (17) and it is 121% above the inventory last month (14).  There were 24 new sales in Rohnert Park in March.  This sales pace is just below the 25 sales in March 2023 and it is 14% below the sales last month (28).  There is a 1.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($724,000) of the 28 homes and condominiums that closed in March is about 1% above the median price in March a year ago ($720,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 43 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (32) is 45% above the level of March 2023 (22) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (30).  There were 16 new sales for the month of March.  This is 78% above the pace in March 2023 (9) and it is also 78% ahead of the pace last month (9).  There is a 2-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $500,000 to $725,000 over the past year.  The median was $800,000 for the 10 homes that closed in March.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in March went from listing to pending in 88 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-five percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of March (192) is 24% above the inventory of a year ago (155) and it is 15% above the inventory last month (103).  New sales in March (135) are 3% below the pace of last March (139) and they are 31% above the 103 sales last month.  There is 1.4-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 115 homes closed in March in Santa Rosa was $760,000 which is 3% above the $740,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in March is 53 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Sebastopol is 30 homes.  This is 11% above the inventory last March (27) and it is 30% above the inventory last month (23).  There were 14 new sales for the month of March.  This is 30% below the pace in March 2023 (20) and it is 13% below the pace last month (16).  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 12 homes that closed in Sebastopol in March went from listing to pending in 71 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (92) at the end of March in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 35% above the inventory last March (68) and it is 31% above the inventory of last month (70).  There were 35 new sales for the month. This is 5% below the 37 sales in March 2023 and it is 59% above the 22 sales last month.  There is a 2.6-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 28 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in March is 62 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 96% of the original listing price.  In March, 37% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 26% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Fifty-one percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of March starts at $3,700,000 (up from $3,400,000 last month). Twenty-two homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 21 in the twelve months prior to that.  In March, there was one new sale in this quartile comparing to 1 new sale a year ago and 1 new sale last month. There are 22 homes available in this quartile in March 2024 compared to 19 a year ago and 15 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of March is 8 properties.  This is 47% below the inventory in March 2023 (15) and it is 43% below the 14 homes in inventory last month.  There were 15 sales in the month.  This is 29% below the pace of sales in March 2023 (21) and it is equal to the pace of last month (15).  There is a 0.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 20 homes that closed in March 2024 in Windsor is 45 days.  The median price ($820,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in March compares to a median price of ($815,000) a year ago, an increase of less than 1%. 

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of March is 61 homes.  This is 8% below the number of mobile homes available in March 2023 (66) and it is 7% above the number of available mobile homes last month (57).  There were 24 new mobile home sales in March.  This is 14% below the pace of sales in March 2023 (28) and it is 33% above the pace of sales last month (18).  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 20 mobile homes closed in March is 84 days and the median price was $190,000 compared to $215,000 a year ago and $191,000 last month.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of March is 305 properties. The current inventory is 17% above the number of lots in March 2023 (261) and it is 8% above the number of available lots last month (282). There were 41 new lot sales in March.  This is 86% above the pace of sales in March 2023 (22) and it is 64% above the pace of lot sales last month (25).  There is a 9.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 28 lots closed in March is 133 days and the median price is $405,000 compared to $400,000 a year ago and $355,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of March (248) is 18% above the inventory in March 2022 (210) and it is also 18% above the inventory last month (210).  New sales (101) were 15% above the pace of last year (88) and are 58% ahead of the sales last month (64).  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 72 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 70 homes closed in March in Napa County ($866,000) is 2% above the median price of a year ago ($851,000).  The annualized average price ($1,222,023) of all homes sold in the County decreased 11% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 92% of original list price.  In March, 24% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 24% of sold homes had a price reduction prior to sale.  Sixty-one percent of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,450,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 37% for the number of closings (33) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,450,000) in Napa County for the period 4/1/23 to 3/31/24 compared to 52 closings in the period 4/1/22 to 3/31/23.  The Napa luxury market does not seem to be responding as quickly as the Sonoma County luxury market.  There are 62 luxury homes in inventory at the end of March 2024 compared to 73 homes in inventory at the end of March 2023 and 50 last month. There were 6 new Luxury Home sales in March compared to 4 last year and 2 last month.  This creates a 10.3-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 87% of original asking price and the 3 homes that closed last month were on the market for 95 days.

American Canyon:  There are 11 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in American Canyon. Last year there were 18 homes in inventory and there were 6 homes in inventory last month.  There were 7 new sales in the month.  This compares to 16 new homes sales last March and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 1.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 4 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 17 days.  The median price in American Canyon has ranged from about $500,000 to $800,000 over the past year.  The median was $673,000 in March.  

Napa:  Fifty-six percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 138 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in the City of Napa. This is 53% above the supply at the end of March 2023 (90) and it is 13% above the inventory at the end of last month (122).  New sales (75) were 37% above the pace of March 2023 (56) and they were 62% above the pace of last month (47).  There is a 1.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 49 closings last month is 57 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in March was $880,000. This is 4% below the median price of the homes closed in March 2023 ($913,000).  

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of March (86) is 6% above the level of 81 in March 2023 and it is 27% above the inventory last month (68).  There were 17 new sales this month compared to 15 a year ago and 9 last month.  There is now a 5.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 15 closings last month is 141 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 87% of original list price.  Forty-one percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,450,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (31 homes). There was one luxury home (price more than $3,450,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 3 new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of March (11) compares to 8 in March 2023 and 7 last month.  There was 1 new sale this month compared to two a year ago and one last month.  The average asking price for the 11 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,790,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of March is 32 homes.  This is 28% above the number of mobile homes available in March 2023 (25) and it is just above the 31 available homes last month.  There were 14 new mobile home sales in March.  This compares to 15 home sales last March 2023 and 9 sales last month.  There is a 2.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 9 mobile homes closed in March is 142 days and the median price was $219,000.  This compares to a median price of $270,000 in March 2023 and $275,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of March stands at 242.  This is 10% above the inventory in March 2023 (221) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (230).  New sales (54) in Mendocino County in March were 80% above the pace of March 2023 (30) and they were 10% above the pace last month (49).  There now is a 4.5-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 47 homes sold in Mendocino County in March is 99 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000 over the past year.  The median price of the homes closed in March in was $369,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 87% of original asking price.  In March, 15% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Thirty-six percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 70% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Ukiah is 40 homes.  This is 11% below the level of March 2023 (45) and it is 11% above the inventory last month (36).  There were 12 new sales for the month of March.  This compares to 12 sales in March 2023 and 13 sales last month.  There are 3.3-months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 10 homes sold in Ukiah in March is 100 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $432,000 for the homes that closed in March.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of March in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 15 homes.  This compares to 21 homes in March 2023 and 15 homes last month.  There were 8 new sales for the month of March.  This compares to 2 sales in March 2023 and 8 new sales last month.  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  The 4 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in March sold for $436,000 and the home sold in 75 days. 

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of March stands at 405.  Approximately 36% of the inventory (145 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 11% (46 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is 7% above the inventory in March 2023 (379) and it is also 7% above the inventory last month (378).  Closed sales (71) in Lake County in March were 14% below the pace of March 2023 (83) and they were 27% ahead of the pace last month (56).  There now is a 6.2-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing closings pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in March is 67 days. Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in March in Lake County was $300,000. This is 9% below the median price in March 2023 ($331,000) and it is 5% above the median price last month ($286,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at an average of 96% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  There are 325 active listings in Humboldt County as of 3/31/24.  They have a median list price of $425,000 and an average list price of $545,410.  There were 69 closings in the month of March.  They had a median sold price of $424,945 and an average sold price of $525,857.  They sold for 91% of original list price and had an average days on market of 62 days.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (301 homes) is 15% above the 261 homes in March 2023 and it is 21% above the 248 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (209) were 10% above the number last March (190) and they were 83% above the pace of last month (114).  There is a 1.4-month supply of inventory at the end of March 2024.  The median price of the 142 homes sold in Marin County in March is $1,450,000.  This is 10% above the median price a year ago ($1,316,000).  Homes sold in an average of 35 days and at 102% of original asking price.

Wine Country, NorthBay and North Coast Real Estate Trends

Wine Country, Northbay and North Coast Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for February 2024

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 36 closings in February 2024 compared to 43 last February and 31 last month.  This February we closed homes with a total value of $17 million compared to $20 million last year and $14 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG-MT in February was $335,919. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 75 pending sales with a value of $37 million dollars.  We are 16% ahead of our pending dollar volume at this time last year.  We have 113 active listings with a value of $46 million dollars.  We are 35% ahead of our volume of last year.  Our average listing price is $407,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of February.  Paige Hotchkiss in Lakeport led all agents with five closings.  Mari Giblin in Santa Rosa and David Hughes and Jessica Hooten in Clearlake each had four closings

Barbara Cronick, Carina De Herrera, Ann Conger, Bernadette Luna-Notson, Dave Hughes (4), Elizabeth Gonzalez, Liz Uribe, Paige Hotchkiss (5), Jose Mendoza, Jessica Hooten (4), Julie Lee, Jessica Spencer (3), Mara Kahn, Martha Saly, Julie Lee, Mari Giblin (4), Zebi Bojarski, Maureen Linde, Rolin Trehearne (2), Shannon Bunyard and Sharon Lutz. 

National Trends

All signals are still pointing to growth in the real estate market in 2024.  The forecasts were reduced in February as interest rates spiked above 7% and the pace of sales were just 3% to 9% over a year ago compared to 10-15% that occurred in November and December.  National inventory is currently 12% over 2023.  In California and other western states the figure is 7 to 10% ahead of last year.  If rates stay over 7%, some experts expect inventory may grow to be 40% over last year by June.  If rates fall in the coming months, the pace of sales will accelerate and inventory will fall.  Single family median home prices continue to show a 1-3% increase on a year over year basis and are expected to stay in that range for all of 2024.  The year will end with a record high median national sales price if this trend continues.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for February 2024

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,825 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February.  Inventory is up 17% from a year ago (1,556) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (1,714).  As is expected, the inventory is beginning to rise into the Spring market.  There were 849 new sales for the month of February.  This number is 2% below a year ago (869) and 20% ahead of the pace of last month (707).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in February was $684,000 which is 8% above the $660,000 last February.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 30% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  In normal years, this ratio is in the 30% to 35% range with the higher part of the range being in the Fall months.  For February 2024, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are generally in-line with the national figures.  In the region combined, 30% of the homes sold in February had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 41% last month and 37% a year ago.  The numbers were 31% for Napa County, 26% for Sonoma County and 33% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 26% across the region.  This compares to 17% last month and 26% a year ago.  The numbers were 25% in Napa County, 37% in Sonoma County and 17% in Mendocino County.  Thirty percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 59% had a lower selling price than the original list price.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of February stands at 468 homes.  This is 14% above the inventory in February 2023 (410) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (447).  We are experiencing the expected rise in inventory leading into the Spring market.  Forty-eight percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (223) currently are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (271) in Sonoma County in February were 3% above the pace of February 2023 (262) and they were 18% above the pace last month (229).  There is a 1.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 19 (Coastal Sonoma) to 102 (Healdsburg) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 57 days.  The median price of the 197 homes closed in February in Sonoma County was $800,000. This is 8% above the median price in February 2023 ($740,000).  The annualized average price of all homes sold in the County increased 4% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 93% of their original list price.  In February, 37% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 26% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Fifty-one percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than $2,000,000 – up from $1,850,000 last month).  There has been a 10% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (233) from 3/1/23 to 2/29/24 compared to 260 closings in the period 3/1/22 to 2/28/23.  The inventory of luxury homes (111) is 18% above the inventory in February 2023 (94 homes) and it is 13% above the inventory last month (96).  The pace of new sales (15) in February is 7% ahead of a year ago (14) and it is 50% above the pace last month (10).  The Days on Market for 11 Luxury Home closings was 85 days this February.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in February was 57 days.  There is a 7.4-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.7-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 90% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 16 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 13 homes in inventory in February 2023 and 11 homes last month.  There were 6 new sales in February compared to 7 a year ago and 4 last month.  There is now a 2.7-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 2 homes that closed in February is 92 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 11 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 10 homes in inventory in February 2023 and 11 homes last month.  There was 1 new sale in February compared to none a year ago and four last month.  The Days on Market for the 3 homes that closed in February is 19 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 48 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 109% above the inventory in February 2023 (23) and it is 23% below the inventory last month (39).  New sales in February (8) were 47% below the pace of sales in February 2023 (15) and they were 14% above the pace of sales last month (7).  There are 6-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 4 homes that closed in February is 102 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 18 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of February.  This is 64% above the inventory in February 2023 (11) and it is 50% above the inventory of last month (12).  New sales (13) were 28% below the sales pace of a year ago (18) and they were 86% above the pace of last month (7).  There is a 1.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the low $600,000’s up to $832,000.  The median price was $685,000 for the 7 homes that closed in February.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February is 51 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of February (56) is 19% above the inventory in February 2023 (47) and it is 14% above the inventory last month (49).  There were 35 new sales for the month.  This is 6% above the sales in February 2023 (33) and it is 46% above the sales pace last month (24).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.1 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 21 homes that closed in February was $800,000.  This is 9% below the median price last February ($875,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February is 36 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of February (14) is 25% below the inventory in February 2023 (19) and it is 17% above the inventory last month (22).  There were 29 new sales in Rohnert Park in February.  This sales pace is 26% above the 23 sales in February 2023 and it is 21% above the sales last month (24).  There is a 0.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($695,000) of the 24 homes and condominiums that closed in February is 3% above the median price in February a year ago ($675,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in February is 48 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (30) is 25% above the level of February 2023 (24) and it is 11% above the inventory last month (27).  There were 9 new sales for the month of February.  This is 10% below the pace in February 2023 (10) and it is 25% below the pace last month (12).  There is a 3.3-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $500,000 to $725,000 over the past year.  The median was $515,000 for the 7 homes that closed in February.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in February went from listing to pending in 87 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-six percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of February (167) is 5% above the inventory of a year ago (159) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (177).  New sales in February (111) are 2% above the pace of last February (109) and they are 10% above the 101 sales last month.  There is 1.5-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 90 homes closed in February in Santa Rosa was $712,000 which is 4% above the $682,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February is 63 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Sebastopol is 23 homes.  This is 18% below the inventory last February (28) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (27).  There were 18 new sales for the month of February.  This is equal to the pace in February 2023 (18) and it is 80% ahead of the pace last month (10).  There is a 1.3-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 12 homes that closed in Sebastopol in February went from listing to pending in 32 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (70) at the end of February in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 15% above the inventory last February (61) and it is 9% above the inventory of last month (64).  Fifty-one percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (36) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 25 new sales for the month. This is 19% above the 21 sales in February 2023 and it is 47% above the 17 sales last month.  There is a 2.8-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 16 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in February is 73 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 97% of the original listing price.  In February, 31% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 25% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Fifty-six percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of February starts at $3,400,000.  Twenty-five homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 32 in the twelve months prior to that.  In February, there were 3 new sales in this quartile comparing to 2 new sales a year ago and 2 new sales last month. There are 18 homes available in this quartile in February 2024 compared to 19 a year ago and 17 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of February is 14 properties.  This is 34% below the inventory in February 2023 (21) and it is 17% above the 12 homes in inventory last month.  There were 16 sales in the month.  This is equal to the pace of sales in February 2023 (16) and it is 14% above the pace of last month (14).  There is a 0.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 9 homes that closed in February 2024 in Windsor is 46 days.  The median price ($860,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in February compares to a median price of ($762,000) a year ago, an increase of 13%. 

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of February is 57 homes.  This is 8% above the number of mobile homes available in February 2023 (53) and it is equal to the number of available mobile homes last month (57).  There were 23 new mobile home sales in February.  This is 15% below the pace of sales in February 2023 (27) and it is 36% below the pace of sales last month (36).  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 28 mobile homes closed in February is 84 days and the median price was $188,000 compared to $215,000 a year ago and $168,000 last month.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of February is 282 properties. The current inventory is 13% above the number of lots in February 2023 (249) and it is 2% above the number of available lots last month (277). There were 29 new lot sales in February.  This is 94% above the pace of sales in February 2023 (15) and it is 53% above the pace of lot sales last month (19).  There is a 9.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 23 lots closed in February is 145 days and the median price is $355,000 compared to $310,000 a year ago and $265,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of February (210) is 9% above the inventory in February 2022 (193) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (199).  Sixty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County (140 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (66) are slightly above the pace of last year (65) and are 29% ahead of the 51 sales last month.  There is a 3.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 71 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 59 homes closed in February in Napa County ($840,000) is 2% above the median price of a year ago ($825,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original list price.  In February, 25% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 31% of sold homes had a price reduction prior to sale.  Sixty-three percent of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,150,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 39% for the number of closings (38) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,150,000) in Napa County for the period 3/1/23 to 2/29/24 compared to 62 closings in the period 3/1/22 to 2/28/23.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in this number of luxury sales.  There are 53 luxury homes in inventory at the end of February 2024 compared to 51 homes in inventory at the end of February 2023 and 53 last month. There were four new Luxury Home sales in February compared to two last year and two last month.  This creates a 13.3-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 87% of original asking price and the 4 homes that closed last month were on the market for 102 days.

American Canyon:  There are just 6 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in American Canyon. Last year there were 11 homes in inventory and there were also 11 homes in inventory last month.  There were 5 new sales in the month.  This compares to 7 new homes sales last February and 4 new sales last month.  There is a 1.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 5 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 36 days.  The median price in American Canyon has ranged from about $500,000 to $800,000 over the past year.  The median was $545,000 in February.  

Napa:  Fifty-eight percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 122 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in the City of Napa. This is 45% above the supply at the end of February 2023 (84) and it is 9% above the inventory at the end of last month (112).  New sales (49) were 17% above the pace of February 2023 (42) and they were 36% above the pace of last month (36).  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 42 closings last month is 62 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in February was $850,000. This is 1% above the median price of the homes closed in February 2023 ($843,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of February (68) is 14% below the level of 79 in February 2023 and it is 6% above the inventory last month (64).  There were 9 new sales this month compared to 10 a year ago and 9 last month.  There is now a 7.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 9 closings last month is 139 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 85% of original list price.  Forty-nine percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,150,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (26 homes). There was one luxury home (price more than $3,150,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and there was one new luxury home sale.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of February (7) compares to 8 in February 2023 and 11 last month.  There were 2 new sales this month compared to one a year ago and one last month.  The average asking price for the 7 homes on the market in Angwin is $2,490,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of February is 31 homes.  This is 55% above the number of mobile homes available in February 2023 (20) and it is equal to the 31 available homes last month.  There were 9 new mobile home sales in February.  This compares to 11 home sales last February 2023 and 11 sales last month.  There is a 3.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 7 mobile homes closed in February is 71 days and the median price was $275,000.  This compares to a median price of $178,000 in February 2023 and $190,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of February stands at 230.  This is 13% above the inventory in February 2023 (203) and it is just below the inventory last month (231).  New sales (53) in Mendocino County in February were 61% above the pace of February 2023 (33) and they were 36% above the pace last month (39).  There now is a 4.3-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 36 homes sold in Mendocino County in February is 90 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000 over the past year.  The median price of the homes closed in February in was $493,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 86% of original asking price.  In February, 17% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Thirty-three percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 64% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Ukiah is 36 homes.  This is 8% below the level of February 2023 (39) and it is just above the inventory last month (35).  There were 12 new sales for the month of February.  This compares to 12 sales in February 2023 and 14 sales last month.  There are 3 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 12 homes sold in Ukiah in February is 69 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $512,000 for the homes that closed in February.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of February in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 15 homes.  This compares to 14 homes in February 2023 and 19 homes last month.  There were 9 new sales for the month of February.  This compares to 4 sales in February 2023 and 1 new sale last month.  There is a 1.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  The 5 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in February sold for $550,000 and the home sold in 108 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of February in Hopland and Talmage is 12 homes.  This compares to 7 homes in inventory at the end of February 2023 and 11 homes in inventory last month.  There were no new sales in the month of February.  This compares to no sales in February 2023 and two new sales last month.  There were two closed sales in this area last month that closed in an average of 120 days.

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of February stands at 410.  Approximately 35% of the inventory (142 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 12% (50 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is 18% above the inventory in February 2023 (348) and it is 14% above the inventory last month (395).  Closed sales (56) in Lake County in February were about equal to the pace of February 2023 (54) and they were equal to the pace last month (56).  There now is a 6-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing closings pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in February is 54 days. Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in February in Lake County was $286,000. This is 19% above the median price in February 2023 ($240,000) and it is 4% below the median price last month ($299,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at an average of 94% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  Sid Anderson of our Eureka office (though he lives in Montana) does a wonderful analysis of the real estate markets in Humboldt County which includes our offices in Eureka and Fortuna.  For more detailed information – let me know and I’ll send it to you.  In general, sales are up 14% compared to February 2023 and up 32% over January.  The median price is up 2.8% on a year over year basis.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (248 homes) is 20% above the 208 homes in February 2023 and it is 23% above the 201 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (120) were 12% below the number last February (136) and they were 36% above the pace of last month (88).  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory at the end of February 2024.  The median price of the 92 homes sold in Marin County in February is $1,435,000.  This is 20% above the median price a year ago ($1,200,000).  Homes sold in an average of 61 days and at 97% of original asking price.

Wine Country and North Bay Real Estate Trends

Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for January 2024

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 31 closings in January 2024 compared to 44 last January and 47 last month.  This January we closed homes with a total value of $14 million compared to $20 million last year and $17 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG-MT in January was $443,129. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 70 pending sales with a value of $28 million dollars.  We are slightly below our pending dollar volume at this time last year.  We have 112 active listings with a value of $47 million dollars.  We are 27% below our volume for last year.  Our average listing price is $420,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of January.  Mari Giblin in Lakeport and Rianne Pasquariello in St. Helena led all agents with 3 closings each.

Barbara Cronick, Carina De Herrera (2), Leo Merle (2), Cheryl Marinaro, Jana Adams (2), Sheila Deignan (2), Brenda Lockhardt, Sandra Riggs (2), Jill Rake, Jessica Hooten (2), Kim Brown, Jessica Spencer, Malachi Herrera (2), Taran Pitzer, Thomas Harmon, Mari Giblin (3), Yvonne Berg, Martha Saly (2), Parmeeta Ghoman and Rianne Pasquariello (3).

National Trends

All signals are still pointing to growth in the real estate market in 2024.  The forecasts were reduced in January as interest rates spiked above 7% and the pace of sales were just 3% to 9% over a year ago compared to 10-15% that occurred in November and December.  If rates fall in the coming months, the pace of sales will accelerate and inventory will fall.  If rates remain above 7%, inventory is expected to grow. National inventory is currently 12% over 2023 though in California and other western states the figure is down 7 to 10%.  Single family median home prices continue to show a 1-3% increase on a year over year basis and are expected to stay in that range for all of 2024.  The year will end with a record high median national sales price if this trend bears out.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for January 2024

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,714 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January.  Inventory is up 7% from a year ago (1,605) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (1,837).  As usually occurs at this time of year, inventory drops on a month-to-month basis and will likely do so through mid-February.  There were 770 new sales for the month of January.  This number is 13% ahead of a year ago (680) and 22% ahead of the pace of last month (629).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in January was $678,000 which is 8% above the $625,000 last January.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 30% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  In normal years, this ratio is in the 30% to 35% range with the higher part of the range being in the Fall months.  For January 2024, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are generally higher then the national figures.  In the region combined, 41% of the homes sold in January had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 47% last month and 53% a year ago.  The numbers were 42% for Napa County, 34% for Sonoma County and 48% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 17% across the region.  This compares to 19% last month and 10% a year ago.  The numbers were 16% in Napa County, 26% in Sonoma County and 9% in Mendocino County.  Forty-one percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 70% had a lower selling price than the original list price.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of January stands at 447 homes.  This is 11% above the inventory in January 2023 (402) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (476).  As usually occurs at this time of year, inventory drops on a month-to-month basis and will likely do so through mid-February.  Forty-eight percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (214) currently are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (247) in Sonoma County in January were 27% above the pace of January 2023 (195) and they were 26% above the pace last month (196).  There is a 1.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 43 (Rohnert Park) to 136 (Coastal Sonoma) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 69 days.  The median price of the 195 homes closed in January in Sonoma County was $800,000. This is 13% above the median price in January 2023 ($710,000).  The annualized average price of all homes sold in the County increased 4% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 94% of their original list price.  In January, 26% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 34% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Sixty-four percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than ($1,800,000).  There has been a 12% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (304) from 2/1/23 to 1/31/24 compared to 344 closings in the period 2/1/22 to 1/31/23.  The inventory of luxury homes (111) is 18% above the inventory in January 2023 (94 homes) and it is 8% below the inventory last month (121).  The pace of new sales (16) in January is 46% ahead of a year ago (11) and it is equal to the pace last month (16).  The Days on Market for 23 Luxury Home closings was 123 days this January.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in January was 69 days.  There is a 6.9-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.8-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 89% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 11 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 11 homes in inventory in January 2023 and 16 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales in January compared to 4 a year ago and 11 last month.  There is now a 2.6-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 9 homes that closed in January is 59 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 11 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 8 homes in inventory in January 2023 and 10 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales in January compared to none a year ago and one last month.  The Days on Market for the 3 homes that closed in January is 136 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 39 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 22% above the inventory in January 2023 (32) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (46).  New sales in January (9) were 80% above the pace of sales in January 2023 (5) and they were 13% above the pace of sales last month (8).  There are 4.3-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 10 homes that closed in January is 64 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 12 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of January.  This is 29% below the inventory in January 2023 (17) and it is 20% above the inventory of last month (10).  New sales (9) were 25% below the sales pace of a year ago (12) and they were 125% above the pace of last month (4).  There is a 1.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the low $600,000’s up to $832,000.  The median price was $687,000 for the 6 homes that closed in January.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January is 56 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of January (49) is 14% above the inventory in January 2023 (43) and it is 4% above the inventory last month (47).  There were 27 new sales for the month.  This is 8% above the sales in January 2023 (25) and it is 17% above the sales pace last month (23).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.8 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 22 homes that closed in January was $845,000.  This is 4% below the median price last January ($884,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January is 56 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of January (12) is 25% below the inventory in January 2023 (16) and it is 43% below the inventory last month (21).  There were 24 new sales in Rohnert Park in January.  This sales pace is 20% above the 20 sales in January 2023 and it is 85% above the sales last month (13).  There is a 0.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($718,000) of the 9 homes and condominiums that closed in January is 12% above the median price in January a year ago ($640,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in January is 43 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (27) is just below the level of January 2023 (28) and it is 23% below the inventory last month (35).  There were 14 new sales for the month of January.  This is 133% ahead of the pace in January 2023 (6) and it is 100% ahead of the pace last month (7).  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $500,000 to $725,000 over the past year.  The median was $570,000 for the 10 homes that closed in January.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in January went from listing to pending in 80 days.

Santa Rosa:  Forty percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of January (177) is 6% above the inventory of a year ago (167) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (187).  New sales in January (110) are 22% above the pace of last January (90) and they are 31# above the 84 sales last month.  There is 1.6-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 70 homes closed in January in Santa Rosa was $728,000 which is 19% above the $612,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January is 60 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Sebastopol is 27 homes.  This is just above the inventory last January (26) and it is equal to the inventory last month (27).  There were 10 new sales for the month of January.  This is 29% below the pace in January 2023 (14) and it is equal to the pace last month (10).  There is a 2.7-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 9 homes that closed in Sebastopol in January went from listing to pending in 123 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (64) at the end of January in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 31% above the inventory last January (49) and it is 10% above the inventory of last month (58).  Fifty-three percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (34) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 18 new sales for the month. This is slightly above the 17 sales in January 2023 and it is 22% below the 23 sales last month.  There is a 3.6-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 28 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in January is 88 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 87% of the original listing price.  In January, 4% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 50% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Eighty-six percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of January starts at $3,500,000.  Twenty-eight homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 31 in the twelve months prior to that.  In January, there were 2 new sales in this quartile comparing to 1 new sales a year ago and 2 new sales last month. There are 16 homes available in this quartile in January 2024 compared to 17 a year ago and 13 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of January is 12 properties.  This is just below the inventory in January 2023 (13) and it is 20% below the 15 homes in inventory last month.  There were 14 sales in the month.  This is 133% above the pace of sales in January 2023 (6) and it is 180% above the pace of last month (5).  There is a 0.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 10 homes that closed in January 2024 in Windsor is 57 days.  The median price ($839,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in January compares to a median price of ($799,000) a year ago. 

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of January is 57 homes.  This is 27% above the number of mobile homes available in January 2023 (45) and it is 24% below the number of available mobile homes last month (75).  There were 37 new mobile home sales in January.  This is 54% above the pace of sales in January 2023 (24) and it is 76% above the pace of sales last month (21).  There is a 1.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 22 mobile homes closed in January is 84 days and the median price was $144,000 compared to $170,000 a year ago and $151,000 last month.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of January is 277 properties. The current inventory is 23% above the number of lots in January 2023 (225) and it is 7% below the number of available lots last month (299). There were 22 new lot sales in January.  This is 38% above the pace of sales in January 2023 (16) and it is also 38% above the pace of lot sales last month (16).  There is a 12.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 19 lots closed in January is 149 days and the median price is $265,000 compared to $289,000 a year ago and $250,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of January (199) is 12% above the inventory in January 2022 (178) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (206).  Sixty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County (125 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (55) are 4% below the pace of last year (57) and are 22% ahead of the 45 sales last month.  There is a 3.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 95 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 42 homes closed in January in Napa County ($940,000) is 20% above the median price of a year ago ($785,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original list price.  In January, 16% of the homes in Napa County sold at a price that was more than the original asking price and 42% of sold homes had a price reduction prior to sale.  Sixty-three percent of the homes sold at a price that was less than the original asking price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,250,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 47% for the number of closings (32) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,250,000) in Napa County for the period 2/1/23 to 1/31/24 compared to 60 closings in the period 2/1/22 to 1/31/23.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in this number of luxury sales.  There are 49 luxury homes in inventory at the end of January 2024 compared to 43 homes in inventory at the end of January 2023 and 60 last month. There was one new Luxury Home sale in January compared to none last year and four last month.  This creates a 49-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 93% of original asking price and the 4 homes that closed last month were on the market for 143 days.

American Canyon:  There are 11 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in American Canyon. Last year there were 16 homes in inventory and there were 13 homes in inventory last month.  There were 4 new sales in the month.  This compares to 10 new homes sales last January and 6 new sales last month.  There is a 2.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 6 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 34 days.  The median price in American Canyon has ranged from about $500,000 to $800,000 over the past year.  The median was $640,000 in January.  

Napa:  Fifty-six percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 112 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in the City of Napa. This is 44% above the supply at the end of January 2023 (78) and it is 8% above the inventory at the end of last month (104).  New sales (38) were 7% below the pace of January 2023 (41) and they were 27% above the pace of last month (30).  There is a 2.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 24 closings last month is 69 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in January was $882,000. This is 12% above the median price of the homes closed in January 2023 ($785,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of January (64) is 7% below the level of 69 in January 2023 and it is 15% below the inventory last month (75).  There were 9 new sales this month compared to 4 a year ago and 8 last month.  There is now a 7.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 10 closings last month is 195 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 84% of original list price.  Forty-nine percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,250,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (24 homes). There were three luxury home (price more than $3,250,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were no new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of January (11) compares to 6 in January 2023 and 13 last month.  There was 1 new sale this month compared to none a year ago and three last month.  The average asking price for the 11 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,521,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of January is 31 homes.  This is 48% above the number of mobile homes available in January 2023 (21) and it is 21% below the 39 available homes last month.  There were 11 new mobile home sales in January.  This compares to 10 home sales last January 2023 and 11 sales last month.  There is a 2.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 8 mobile homes closed in January is 108 days and the median price was $190,000.  This compares to a median price of $210,000 in January 2023 and $170,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of January stands at 231.  This is 10% above the inventory in January 2023 (210) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (259).  New sales (44) in Mendocino County in January were 33% above the pace of January 2023 (33) and they were 4% below the pace last month (46).  There now is a 5.3-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 43 homes sold in Mendocino County in January is 102 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000 over the past year.  The median price of the homes closed in January in was $485,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 88% of original asking price.  In January, 9% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Forty-eight percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 84% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Ukiah is 35 homes.  This is 15% below the level of January 2023 (41) and it is 19% below the inventory last month (43).  There were 14 new sales for the month of January.  This compares to 12 sales in January 2023 and 13 sales last month.  There are 2.5 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 14 homes sold in Ukiah in January is 89 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $453,000 for the homes that closed in January.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of January in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 19 homes.  This compares to 18 homes in January 2023 and 19 homes last month.  There were 2 new sales for the month of January.  This compares to 4 sales in January 2023 and 5 new sales last month.  There is a 9.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  The 5 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in January sold for $470,000 and the home sold in 76 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of January in Hopland and Talmage is 11 homes.  This compares to 5 homes in inventory at the end of January 2023 and 9 homes in inventory last month.  There were two new sales in the month of January.  This compares to 1 sale in January 2023 and no new sales last month.  There were no closed sales in this area last month.  

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of January stands at 413.  Approximately 35% of the inventory (144 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 12% (48 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is 15% above the inventory in January 2023 (360) and it is 2% above the inventory last month (406).  Closed sales (55) in Lake County in January were 8% above the pace of January 2023 (51) and they were equal to the pace last month (55).  There now is a 5.9-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing closings pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in January is 72 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in January in Lake County was $305,000. This is 3% above the median price in January 2023 ($295,000) and it is 1% below the median price last month ($308,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 94% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  Sid Anderson of our Eureka office (though he lives in Montana) does a wonderful analysis of the real estate markets in Humboldt County which includes our offices in Eureka and Fortuna.  For more detailed information – let me know and I’ll send it to you.  In general, sales are up on a year over year comparison and the average price of the sold properties are up 3% for the year.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (201 homes) is 5% below the 211 homes in January 2023 and it is 3% above the 195 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (91) were 4% below the number last January (95) and they were 2% above the pace of last month (89).  There is a 2.2-month supply of inventory at the end of January 2024.  The median price of the 86 homes sold in Marin County in January is $1,325,000.  This is 23% above the median price a year ago ($1,079,000).  Homes sold in an average of 68 days and at 93% of original asking price.

Wine Country and NorthBay Real Estate Trends

Wine Country Market Value Shifts and Sales Trends for 2023 

I’ve done a chart of Wine Country Market Value Shifts dating back to 1998.  I’ve added the latest data for 2023 so if you’d like a copy, drop me an email.  According to the Bay Area Real Estate Services MLS figures, the average price of residential real estate sales across Wine Country (Sonoma, Napa and Mendocino Counties) decreased by 2% in 2023.  This compares to an increase of 6.7% in 2022. The average price of all closings in Sonoma County was $1,002,754 (up 2% from one year ago), the average in Napa County was $1,242,179 (down 12.8% from a year ago) and the average in Mendocino County was $573,943 (down 10% from one year ago).  Prices are expected to increase moderately in 2024.  It will vary from market to market and in different price ranges.

There were 4,913 closings of single-family homes and condominiums across Wine Country in 2023 compared to 6,309 closings in 2022.   This is a 22% decrease in closings.  There was a 22% decrease in Sonoma County (3,552 in 2023 compared to 4,540 in 2022) while Napa Country was also down 22% year over year at 890 units compared to 1,144 units in 2022 and Mendocino County was down 25% in closing volume – 471 sales compared to 625 in 2022. Current expectations are that the 2024 volume will increase by perhaps 10 to 15%.  The total sales dollar volume was over $4.9 billion dollars – $3.6 billion in Sonoma County, $1.1 billion in Napa County and $270 million in Mendocino County.  This compares to $6.4 billion dollars last year.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for December 2023

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 42 closings in December 2023 compared to 63 last December and 47 last month.  This December we closed homes with a total value of $17 million compared to $32 million last year and $20 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG-MT in December was $396,134. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 69 pending sales with a value of $31 million dollars.  We are equal to our pending dollar volume at this time last year.  We have 146 active listings with a value of $63 million dollars.  We are 17% ahead of our volume for last year.  Our average listing price is $432,000.

For the entire year of 2023, Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Wine Country Group closed 606 transactions.  This was a decrease of 36% from 2022 (943).  We had dollar volume of $267 million is sales which is a decrease of 37% from 2022 ($425M).

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of December.  Paige Hotchkiss in Lakeport led all agents with 4 closings.

Annalise Von Borstel, Carina De Herrera, Team Ramos (2), Chelsie Runnings, Dave Hughes (3), Sheila Deignan, Isaac Raboy, Paige Hotchkiss (4), Jill Rake, Jessica Hooten, Jessica Valencia (2), Maria Flores, Darla McKenzie, Larry Salmon, Kendra Martin (2), Keziah Watt, Jose Mendoza, Kim Brown (3), Jessica Spencer (3), Larry Doss, Melanie Tash, Roberta Sidoti, Ray Hellgren, Shari Wilde, Sharon Lutz (2), Theresa Kessenich, Yvonne Berg (2), Martha Saly (2), Natalie Hill, Parmeeta Ghoman and Rianne Pasquariello.

National Trends

All signals are pointing to growth in the real estate market in 2024.  The number of sales is expected to increase by 10 to 15% as mortgage interest rates are expected to be in the 6% to 6.5% range.  The Federal Reserve has announced that they expect to have three rate reduction moves in 2024.  This announcement already triggered a narrowing of the unusually high spread between mortgage loan rates and the Treasury Bill rates.  Single family median home prices finished the year with a 2-3% increase over 2022 and are expected to be flat or slightly ahead in 2024.  

North Bay Real Estate Trends for December 2023

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,837 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December.  Inventory is essentially equal to that of a year ago (1,847) and it is 23% below the inventory last month (2,385).  As usually occurs at this time of year, inventory drops on a month-to-month basis and will likely do so through mid-January.  There were 663 new sales for the month of December.  This number is also essentially equal to that of a year ago (665) and 15% below the pace of last month (778).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in December was $710,000 which is 6% above the $670,000 last December.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 33% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  This ratio was higher in December of last year at 38%.  In normal year, this ratio would be in the 30% to 35% range with the higher part of the range being in the Fall months.  For December 2023, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are generally higher then the national figures.  In the region combined, 47% of the homes sold in December had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 38% last month and 45% a year ago.  The numbers were 47% for Napa County, 36% for Sonoma County and 57% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 19% across the region.  This compares to 23% last month and 18% a year ago.  The numbers were 15% in Napa County, 32% in Sonoma County and 11% in Mendocino County.  Forty-seven percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 66% had a lower selling price than the original list price.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of December stands at 475 homes.  This is 4% above the inventory in December 2022 (456) and it is 31% below the inventory last month (686).  As usually occurs at this time of year, inventory drops on a month-to-month basis and will likely do so through mid-January.  Forty-eight percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (230) currently are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (212) in Sonoma County in December were 3% below the pace of December 2022 (216) and they were 13% below the pace last month (244).  There is a 2.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 43 (Petaluma) to 127 (Coastal Sonoma) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 59 days.  The median price of the 240 homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $778,000. This is 4% above the median price in December 2022 ($750,000).  The annualized average price of all homes sold in the County increased 2% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 95% of their original list price.  In December, 32% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 36% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Forty-seven percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than ($1,950,000).  There has been a 16% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (271) from 1/31/23 to 12/31/23 compared to 324 closings in the period 1/1/22 to 12/31/22.  The inventory of luxury homes (118) is 11% above the inventory in December 2022 (106 homes) and it is 37% below the inventory last month (187).  The pace of new sales (18) in December is essentially equal to the pace of a year ago (17) and it is 10% below the pace last month (20).  The Days on Market for 16 Luxury Home closings was 109 days this December.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in December was 59 days.  There is a 6.6-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.2-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 89% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 16 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 14 homes in inventory in December 2022 and 24 homes last month.  There were 10 new sales in December compared to 9 a year ago and 5 last month.  There is now a 1.6-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 6 homes that closed in December is 114 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 10 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 10 homes in inventory in December 2022 and 10 homes last month.  There was one new sale in December compared to 5 a year ago and 4 last month.  The Days on Market for the 5 homes that closed in December is 127 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 46 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 35% above the inventory in December 2022 (34) and it is 32% below the inventory last month (68).  New sales in December (9) were equal to the pace of sales in December 2022 (9) and they were also equal to the pace of sales last month (9).  There are 5.1-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 12 homes that closed in December is 84 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 10 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of December.  This is equal to the inventory in December 2022 (10) and it is 37% below the inventory of last month (16).  New sales (4) were just below the sales pace of a year ago (5) and they were 33% below the pace of last month (6).  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $648,000 for the 6 homes that closed in December.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December is 67 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of December (47) is 10% below the inventory in December 2022 (52) and it is 27% below the inventory last month (64).  There were 23 new sales for the month.  This is equal to the sales in December 2022 (23) and it is 36% below the sales pace last month (36).  The Petaluma market currently has 2.0 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 33 homes that closed in December was $1,000,000. This is 19% below the median price last December ($843,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December is 43 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of December (21) is 9% below the inventory in December 2022 (23) and it is 27% below the inventory last month (29).  There were 14 new sales in Rohnert Park in December.  This sales pace is 42% below the 24 sales in December 2022 and it is 26% below the sales last month (19).  There is a 1.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($739,000) of the 20 homes and condominiums that closed in December is 1% above the median price in December a year ago ($729,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in December is 46 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (30) is 13% above the level of December 2022 (31) and it is 30% below the inventory last month (50).  There were 7 new sales for the month of December.  This is 46% below the pace in December 2022 (13) and it is 22% below the pace last month (9).  There is a 5.0-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $450,000 to $750,000 over the past year.  The median was $492,000 for the 9 homes that closed in December.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in December went from listing to pending in 54 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-nine percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of December (187) is 4% above the inventory of a year ago (180) and it is 26% below the inventory last month (259).  New sales in December (93) are 21% above the pace of last December (77) and they are slightly below the 94 sales last month.  There is a 2-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 106 homes closed in December in Santa Rosa was $733,000 which is 3% above the $710,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December is 57 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Sebastopol is 27 homes.  This is just below the inventory last December (28) and it is 33% below the inventory last month (40).  There were 10 new sales for the month of December.  This is essentially equal to the pace in December 2022 (17) and it is 50% below the pace last month (20).  There is a 2.7-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 16 homes that closed in Sebastopol in December went from listing to pending in 51 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (58) at the end of December in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 9% above the inventory last December (54) and it is 45% below the inventory of last month (106).  Sixty-seven percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (39) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 26 new sales for the month. This is slightly above the 25 sales in December 2022 and it is 24% above the 21 sales last month.  There is a 2.2-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 11 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in December is 70 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 91% of the original listing price.  In December, 18% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 55% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Sixty-four percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of December starts at $3,200,000.  Thirty-three homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 33 in the twelve months prior to that.  In December, there were 2 new sales in this quartile comparing to 4 new sales a year ago and four new sales last month.  (Last month’s data incorrectly reflected 10 new sales for the month when there were actually 4).  There are 15 homes available in this quartile in December 2023 compared to 15 a year ago and 31 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of December is 15 properties.  This is 17% below the inventory in December 2022 (18) and it is equal to the 15 homes in inventory last month.  There were 8 sales in the month.  This is 43% below the pace of sales in December 2022 (14) and it is 39% below the pace of last month (13).  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 12 homes that closed in December 2023 in Windsor is 51 days.  The median price ($758,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in December compares to a median price a year ago ($723,000). 

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of December is 75 homes.  This is 63% above the number of mobile homes available in December 2022 (46) and it is just below the number of available mobile homes last month (77).  There were 22 new mobile home sales in December.  This is 100% above the pace of sales in December 2022 (11) and it is equal to the pace of sales last month (22).  There is a 3.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 26 mobile homes closed in December is 60 days and the median price was $170,000 compared to $175,000 a year ago and $184,000 last month.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of December is 299 properties. The current inventory is 20% above the number of lots in December 2022 (245) and it is 8% below the number of available lots last month (325). There were 15 new lot sales in December.  This is 35% below the pace of sales in December 2022 (23) and it is 42% below the pace of lot sales last month (26).  There is a 20-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 16 lots closed in December is 128 days and the median price is $233,000 compared to $2765,000 a year ago and $300,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of December (206) is 4% above the inventory in December 2022 (199) and it is 26% below the inventory last month (279).  Sixty-one percent of the inventory in Napa County (126 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (49) are 23% above the pace of last year (40) and are 29% below the 69 sales last month.  There is a 4.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 66 homes closing in Napa County is currently 87 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in December in Napa County ($900,000) is 16% above the median price of a year ago ($775,000).  The annualized average price of homes sold in Napa County is down 12.8% from a year ago.  This is the largest margin in our region but can easily reverse itself with a comeback of high-end sales in the coming months.  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original list price.  In December, 15% of the homes in Napa County sold for more than their original list price. Forty-seven percent of the homes had a price reduction prior to selling.  Seventy-one percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,750,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 55% for the number of closings (21) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,750,000) in Napa County for the period 1/31/23 to 12/31/23 compared to 47 closings in the period 1/1/22 to 12/31/22.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in the number of luxury home sales.  There are 52 luxury homes in inventory at the end of December 2023 compared to 47 homes in inventory at the end of December 2022 and 69 last month. There is a 13-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 88% of original asking price.  (Last month’s blog incorrectly reported 13 new luxury homes sold in the month.  The corrected data shows that it was 3 sales.) 

American Canyon:  There are 13 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in American Canyon. Last year there were 24 homes in inventory and there were 15 homes in inventory last month.  There were 7 new sales in the month.  This compares to 7 new homes sales last December and 3 new sales last month.  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 1 home that closed in American Canyon last month was 21 days. Since there was only 1 closed home in American Canyon in December, it doesn’t make sense to compare the median or square foot price with the prior year.

Napa:  Fifty percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 104 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in the City of Napa. This is 37% above the supply at the end of December 2022 (76) and it is 28% below the inventory at the end of last month (146).  New sales (52) were 14% above the pace of December 2022 (28) and they were 27% below the pace of last month (44).  There is a 3.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 42 closings last month is 70 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in December was $844,000. This is 6% above the median price of the homes closed in December 2022 ($799,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of December (75) is 4% below the level of 78 in December 2022 and it is 29% below the inventory last month (105).  There were 9 new sales this month compared to 5 a year ago and 18 last month.  There is now a 8.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 8 closings last month is 160 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 83% of original list price.  Forty-eight percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,750,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (25 homes). There were no luxury home (price more than $3,750,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 2 new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of December (13) compares to 9 in December 2022 and 15 last month.  There were 3 new sales this month compared to one a year ago and none last month.  The average asking price for the 13 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,273,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of December is 39 homes.  This is 44% above the number of mobile homes available in December 2022 (27) and it is 11% below the 44 available homes last month.  There were 8 new mobile home sales in December.  This compares to 8 home sales last December 2022 and 7 sales last month.  There is a 4.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 9 mobile homes closed in December is 92 days and the median price was $170,000.  This compares to a median price of $208,000 in December 2022 and $210,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of December stands at 259.  This is 7% above the inventory in December 2022 (241) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (292).  New sales (48) in Mendocino County in December were 33% above the pace of December 2022 (36) and they were 66% above the pace last month (29).  There now is a 5.4-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 28 homes sold in Mendocino County in December is 123 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000 over the past year.  The median price of the homes closed in December in was $479,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original asking price.  In December, 11% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Fifty-seven percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 79% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Ukiah is 43 homes.  This is 4% below the level of December 2022 (45) and it is 18% below the inventory last month (52).  There were 12 new sales for the month of December.  This is slightly ahead of the 11 sales in December 2022 and it is equal to the 12 sales last month.  There are 3.6 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 9 homes sold in Ukiah in December is 107 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $640,000 for the homes that closed in December.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of December in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 19 homes.  This compares to 21 homes in December 2022 and 28 homes last month.  There were 5 new sales for the month of December.  This compares to 2 sales in December 2022 and 3 new sales last month.  There is a 3.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There was just one closing in Redwood Valley/Calpella in December that sold for $1,150,000 and the home sold in 74 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of December in Hopland and Talmage is 9 homes.  This compares to 9 homes in inventory at the end of December 2022 and 11 homes in inventory last month.  There was one new sale in the month of December.  This compares to 1 sale in December 2022 and no new sales last month.  There was 1 closing in this area last month.  

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of December stands at 428.  Approximately 35% of the inventory (150 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 13% (54 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is 14% above the inventory in December 2022 (376) and it is 14% below the inventory last month (466).  Closed sales (55) in Lake County in December were 27% below the pace of December 2022 (75) and they were 11% below the pace last month (62).  There now is a 6.1-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing closings pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in December is 52 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in December in Lake County was $308,000. This is 4% above the median price in December 2022 ($295,000) and it is 13% above the median price last month ($273,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 92% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  Sid Anderson of our Eureka office (though he lives in Montana) does a wonderful analysis of the real estate markets in Humboldt County which includes our offices in Eureka and Fortuna.  For more detailed information – let me know and I’ll send it to you.  In general, sales are down 19% year over year and the average price of the sold properties are up 5.4% for the year.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (195 homes) is 11% below the 220 homes in December 2022 and it is 38% below the 315 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (91) were 20% above the number last December (76) and they were 42% below the pace of last month (156).  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory at the end of December 2023.  The median price of the 129 homes sold in Marin County in December is $1,350,000.  This is 5% above the median price a year ago ($1,284,000).  Homes sold in an average of 53 days and at 93% of original asking price.

Wine Country and NorthBay Real Estate Trends

Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for November 2023

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 47 closings in November 2023 compared to 79 last November and 54 last month.  This November we closed homes with a total value of $20 million compared to $38 million last year and $20 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG-MT in November was $417,616. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 69 pending sales with a value of $31 million dollars.  We are equal to our pending dollar volume at this time last year.  We have 146 active listings with a value of $63 million dollars.  We are 17% ahead of our volume for last year.  Our average listing price is $432,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of November.  Mari Giblin in Santa Rosa and the Ramos Team in Ukiah led all agents with 4 closings each.

Annalise Von Borstel (3), Carrie Sullivan, Team Ramos (4), Cheyenne Blue, Dave Hughes, Sheila Deignan (3), Jeffrey Seligson, Paige Hotchkiss, Jana Adams, Jessica Hooten (2), Malachi Herrera (2), Mari Giblin (4), Darla McKenzie, Liz Uribe (2), Jill Rake, Kim Brown, Keziah Watt, Jose Mendoza, Joe Hebel (2), Jessica Spencer (3), Larry Doss, Melanie Zuniga, Raymond Giomi, Roberta Sidoti, Rolin Treheame (2), Shari Wilde, Sharon Lutz (2), Theresa Kessenich (2), Yvonne Berg and Stephen Miner.

National Trends

One national trend is a raft of lawsuits against the National Association of Realtors, local Associations of Realtors, MLSs, and the larger real estate companies.  These are predominantly “copycat” lawsuits after the case in Missouri where a jury found in favor of the class action members (sellers) on the claim of undisclosed commission payments.  The real estate industry in general, and particularly the industry in California, believe that these lawsuits are without merit and will be either dismissed or overturned on appeal.  In the meantime, there will be costs to defend them and the attorneys on both sides will have to be paid.  This activity is causing changes in our business that will develop into new laws, forms, and disclosures to make it ever more certain that the parties to a real estate transaction are fully informed of the compensation to brokers in a transaction and the party/parties responsible to pay them.   Compensation will continue to be negotiated between a broker and their respective client, as it always has been.  Stay tuned for further developments.  

The national housing has experienced a large decrease in sales over the past two years.  2022 sales were down 18% over 2021 sales and 2023 sales are down another 18% from 2022.  This year will be the lowest level of homes sales since 2008 or 1995 depending on where you are in the country.  Sales are expected to increase in 2024 as mortgage interest rates are expected to be in the 6% to 6.5% range.  The Federal Reserve has announced that they expect to have three rate reduction moves in 2024.  This announcement already triggered a narrowing of the unusually high spread between mortgage loan rates and the Treasury Bill rates.  Single family median home prices are expected to finish the year with a 2-3% increase over 2022 and are expected to be flat or slightly ahead in 2024.  Interesting facts for the year include:  1. 29% of all transactions have been cash transactions; 2. There has been an average of 2.5 offers on each transaction; 3. 2% of all sales are “distressed sales” – a historically record low; 4. 16% of first-time buyer sales have been unmarried couples as compared to 4% in 1985; 5. Many first-time buyers are single woman or single men. 

I have a further notion that might add to the inventory of homes for sale in 2024.  The normal “urges” to sell a home have been present for the past two years, but homeowners have deferred them because they have low interest rate long-term mortgages.  I’m thinking that some homeowners may get tired of resisting these “urges” and decide to move their substantial built-up equities down the road apiece.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for November 2023

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,385 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November.  Inventory is 2% below that of a year ago (2,426) and it is 12% below the inventory last month (2,702).  There were 1,055 sales for the month of November.  This number is 25% above a year ago (843) and 14% above the pace of last month (922).  Rates where on the rise at this time last year and sales stalled.  This year, rates have been high, but stable.  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in November was $710,000 which is 3% below the $734,000 last November.

I’m noticing that the difference between annualized sales and dollar volume is flattening out on a year over year basis.  This might indicate that the worst months of falling activity are behind us, i.e., we may have hit “the bottom” of the current housing market cycle.  More will be revealed in the coming months.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 38% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  This ratio was higher in November of last year at 43%.  In normal year, this ratio would be in the 30% to 35% range with the higher part of the range being in the Fall months.  For November 2023, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are like the national figures.  In the region combined, 38% of the homes sold in November had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 35% last month and 37% a year ago.  The numbers were 42% for Napa County, 37% for Sonoma County and 35% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 23% across the region.  This compares to 30% last month and 22% a year ago.  The numbers were 24% in Napa County, 32% in Sonoma County and 14% in Mendocino County.  Thirty-eight percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 65% had a lower selling price than the original list price.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of November stands at 686 homes.  This is 11% above the inventory in November 2022 (617) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (767).  As usually occurs at this time of year, the inventory is starting to drop on a month-to-month basis and will likely do so through early January.  Forty-nine percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (335) currently are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (339) in Sonoma County in November were 24% above the pace of November 2022 (274) and they were 13% above the pace last month (299).  There is a 2.0-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 36 (Petaluma) to 86 (Coastal Sonoma) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 51 days.  The median price of the 243 homes closed in November in Sonoma County was $780,000. This is 4% below the median price in November 2022 ($810,000).  The annualized average price of all homes sold in the County increased 2% in the past twelve months.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 96% of their original list price.  In November, 32% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 37% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Fifty-six percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than ($1,950,000).  There has been a 20% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (239) from 12/1/22 to 11/30/23 compared to 299 closings in the period 12/1/21 to 11/30/22.  The inventory of luxury homes (175) is 23% above the inventory in November 2022 (142 homes) and it is 12% below the inventory last month (199).  The pace of new sales (46) in November this year was quite strong and is 188% above the pace of a year ago (16).  It’s the highest level for any month this year and it is 142% above the pace last month (19).  The Days on Market for 14 Luxury Home closings was 112 days this November.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in November was 51 days.  There is a 3.8-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.0-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 90% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 24 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 24 homes in inventory in November 2022 and 25 homes last month.  There were 8 new sales in November compared to 2 a year ago and 9 last month.  There is now a 3-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 8 homes that closed in November is 72 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 10 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 12 homes in inventory in November 2022 and 12 homes last month.  There were 6 new sales in November compared to 5 a year ago and 5 last month.  The Days on Market for the 3 homes that closed in November is 86 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 68 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 51% above the inventory in November 2022 (45) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (73).  New sales in November (18) were 13% above the pace of sales in November 2022 (16) and they were also 13% above the pace of sales last month (16).  There are 3.8-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 8 homes that closed in November is 61 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 16 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of November.  This is 30% below the inventory in November 2022 (23) and it is 7% above the inventory of last month (15).  New sales (6) were 57% below the sales pace of a year ago (14) and they were also 57% below the pace of last month (14).  There is a 2.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $667,000 for the 12 homes that closed in November.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November is 52 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of November (64) is 7% below the inventory in November 2022 (69) and it is 25% below the inventory last month (85).  There were 49 new sales for the month.  This is 48% above the sales in November 2022 (33) and it is 32% above the sales pace last month (37).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.3 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 38 homes that closed in November was $799,000. This is 7% below the median price last November ($860,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November is 36 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of November (29) is 7% below the inventory in November 2022 (31) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (27).  There were 21 new sales in Rohnert Park in November.  This sales pace is 16% below the 25 sales in November 2022 and it is 9% below the sales last month (23).  There is a 1.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($730,000) of the 18 homes and condominiums that closed in November is equal to the median price in November a year ago ($730,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in November is 49 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (50) is 22% above the level of November 2022 (41) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (52).  There were 14 new sales for the month of November.  This is 27% above the pace in November 2022 (11) and it is 13% below the pace last month (16).  There is a 3.6-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $450,000 to $750,000 over the past year.  The median was $479,000 for the 12 homes that closed in November.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in November went from listing to pending in 59 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-seven percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of November (253) is 18% above the inventory of a year ago (214) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (262).  New sales in November (125) are 3% above the pace of last November (122) and they are 3% above the 121 sales last month.  There is a 2-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 91 homes closed in November in Santa Rosa was $725,000 which is 4% below the $757,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November is 50 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Sebastopol is 40 homes.  This is 7% below the inventory last November (43) and it is 26% below the inventory last month (54).  There were 27 new sales for the month of November.  This is 59% above the pace in November 2022 (17) and it is 69% above the pace last month (16).  There is a 1.5-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 16 homes that closed in Sebastopol in November went from listing to pending in 75 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (106) at the end of November in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 21% above the inventory last November (88) and it is 12% below the inventory of last month (120).  Sixty-nine percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (73) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 41 new sales for the month. This is 95% above the 21 sales in November 2022 and it is 46% above the 28 sales last month.  There is a 2.6-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 27 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in November is 51 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 90% of the original listing price.  In November, 15% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 33% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Seventy-four percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of November starts at $3,600,000.  Twenty-one homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 31 in the twelve months prior to that.  This is a decrease of 32%.  In November, there was a large jump to 10 new sales in this quartile.  This is the most sales for any month this year.  There are 27 homes available in this quartile in November 2023 compared to 24 a year ago and 30 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of November is 15 properties.  This is 38% below the inventory in November 2022 (24) and it is 35% below the 23 homes in inventory last month.  There were 16 sales in the month.  This is 14% above the pace of sales in November 2022 (14) and it is 20% below the pace of last month (20).  There is a 0.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 14 homes that closed in November 2023 in Windsor is 39 days.  The median price ($780,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in November compares to a median price a year ago ($853,000). 

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of November is 77 homes.  This is 83% above the number of mobile homes available in November 2022 (42) and it is 20% above the number of available mobile homes last month (64).  There were 30 new mobile home sales in November.  This is 7% above the pace of sales in November 2022 (28) and it is equal to the pace of sales last month (30).  There is a 2.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 18 mobile homes closed in November is 73 days and the median price was $170,000 compared to $175,000 a year ago and $216,000 last month.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of November is 325 properties. The current inventory is 18% above the number of lots in November 2022 (275) and it is 9% below the number of available lots last month (357). There were 42 new lot sales in November.  This is a high for the year and is 250% above the pace of sales in November 2022 (12) and it is 133% above the pace of lot sales last month (18).  There is a 7.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to 20 months last month.  The average days on market of the 19 lots closed in November is 180 days and the median price is $300,000 compared to $508,000 a year ago and $316,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of November (279) is 6% above the inventory in November 2022 (264) and it is 18% below the inventory last month (339).  Sixty-six percent of the inventory in Napa County (185 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (109) are 58% above the pace of last year (69) and are 36% above the 80 sales last month.  There is a 2.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 66 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 66 homes closed in November in Napa County ($808,000) is 13% below the median price of a year ago ($925,000).  The annualized average price of homes sold in Napa County is down 14.6% from a year ago.  This is the largest margin in our region but can easily reverse itself with a comeback of high-end sales in the coming months.  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 92% of original list price.  In November, 24% of the homes in Napa County sold for more than their original list price. Forty-two percent of the homes had a price reduction prior to selling.  Fifty-six percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.  

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,700,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 54% for the number of closings (24) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,700,000) in Napa County for the period 12/1/22 to 11/30/23 compared to 52 closings in the period 12/1/21 to 11/30/22.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in the number of luxury home sales.  That being said, there was a big jump in luxury market sales in November with 13 new sales compared to 3 a year ago and 3 last month.  This is the highest number of luxury sales in Napa County in any month for the past twelve months.  There are 69 luxury homes in inventory at the end of November 2023 compared to 67 homes in inventory at the end of November 2022 and 90 last month. There is a 5.3-month supply of inventory now as compared to 21 months last month.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 91% of original asking price.

American Canyon:  There are 15 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of November in American Canyon. Last year there were 29 homes in inventory and there were 15 homes in inventory last month.  There were 7 new sales in the month.  This compares to 8 new homes sales last November and 7 new sales last month.  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 7 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 86 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in November ($810,000) compares to a median price of ($503,000) a year ago.  The median price in American Canyon can fluctuate quite a bit from month to month.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $324 last month.  This is in line the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Fifty-two percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 145 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of November in the City of Napa. This is 22% above the supply at the end of November 2022 (119) and it is 18% below the inventory at the end of last month (176).  New sales (68) were 31% above the pace of November 2022 (52) and they were 17% above the pace of last month (58).  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 45 closings last month is 47 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in November was $810,000. This is 11% below the median price of the homes closed in November 2022 ($914,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of November (105) is 6% above the level of 99 in November 2022 and it is 19% below the inventory last month (130).  There were 30 new sales this month compared to 11 a year ago and 12 last month.  There is now a 3.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 9 closings last month is 92 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 86% of original list price.  Fifty-one percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,700,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (35 homes). There were no luxury home (price more than $3,700,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month but there were 8 new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of November (15) compares to 10 in November 2022 and 15 last month.  There were no new sales this month compared to none a year ago and none last month.  The average asking price for the 15 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,398,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of November is 44 homes.  This is 100% above the number of mobile homes available in November 2022 (22) and it is 7% above the 41 available homes last month.  There were 10 new mobile home sales in November.  This compares to 9 home sales last November 2022 and 6 sales last month.  There is a 4.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 7 mobile homes closed in November is 46 days and the median price was $210,000.  This compares to a median price of $270,000 in November 2022 and $220,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of November stands at 292.  This is 5% above the inventory in November 2022 (301) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (301).  New sales (44) in Mendocino County in November were 63% above the pace of November 2022 (27) and they were 16% above the pace last month (38).  There now is a 6.6-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 37 homes sold in Mendocino County in November is 115 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in November in Mendocino County was $534,000.  Generally, the median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original asking price.  In November, 14% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Thirty-five percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 73% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Ukiah is 52 homes.  This is 7% below the level of November 2022 (56) and it is 10% below the inventory last month (58).  There were 15 new sales for the month of November.  This is 88% ahead of the 8 sales in November 2022 and it is 50% above the 10 sales last month.  There are 3.5 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 14 homes sold in Ukiah in November is 93 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $544,000 for the homes that closed in November.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of November in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 26 homes.  This compares to 26 homes in November 2022 and 24 homes last month.  There were 4 new sales for the month of November.  This compares to 3 sales in November 2022 and 3 new sales last month.  There is a 6.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 5 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in November at a median price of $564,000 and the homes sold in an average of 82 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of November in Hopland and Talmage is 11 homes.  This compares to 9 homes in inventory at the end of November 2022 and 11 homes in inventory last month.  There were no new sales in the month of November.  This compares to 1 sale in November 2022 and 1 new sale last month.  There was 1 closing in this area last month.  

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of November stands at 456.  Approximately 34% of the inventory (155 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 12% (55 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is essentially equal to the inventory in November 2022 (455) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (478).  Closed sales (62) in Lake County in November were 13% below the pace of November 2022 (71) and they were 26% below the pace last month (84).  There now is a 6.5-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing closings pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in November is 33 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in November in Lake County was $273,000. This is 9% below the median price in November 2022 ($300,000) and it is 15% below the median price last month ($322,000).  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 94% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  Sid Anderson of our Eureka office (though he lives in Montana) does a wonderful analysis of the real estate markets in Humboldt County which includes our offices in Eureka and Fortuna.  For more detailed information – let me know and I’ll send it to you.  In general, sales are down 17% year over year and the median price of the sold properties are down modestly for the year.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (315 homes) is 6% below the 335 homes in November 2022 and it is 24% below the 413 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (215) were 40% above the number last November (154) and they were 21% above the pace of last month (178).  There is a 1.5-month supply of inventory at the end of November 2023.  The median price of the 147 homes sold in Marin County in November is $1,460,000.  This is 3% above the median price a year ago ($1,415,000).  Homes sold in 36 an average of 36 days and at 97% of original asking price.

Wine Country and NorthBay Real Estate Trends

Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends in October 2023

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for October 2023

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 54 closings in October 2023 compared to 71 last October and 48 last month.  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In October 2019 we closed 55 homes.  This October we closed homes with a total value of $20 million compared to $27 million last year, $18 million last month and $33 million in 2/19.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG-MT in October was $370,343. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 77 pending sales with a value of $38 million dollars.  We are 35% behind our pending unit volume last year.  We have 142 active listings with a value of $63 million dollars.  We are 23% behind our listing unit volume for last year.  Our average listing price is $444,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of October.  Paige Hotchkiss in Lakeport led all agents with 7 closings.

Carina De Herrera, Annalise Von Borstel (3), Brenda Lockhart (3), Team Ramos (2), Cheryl Marinaro (2), Halla Hammoudeh, Sheila Deignan, Jeffrey Seligson, Paige Hotchkiss (7), Jana Adams (3), Jessica Hooten, Malachi Herrera (2), Mari Giblin, Jerry Moulton, Julie Lee (2), Kendra Martin, Kim Brown (4), Keziah Watt, Lisa Ladanyl, Liz Manfree (2), Jessica Spencer (5), Lannie Jones, Mara Kahn, Martha Saly, Parmeeta Ghoman (2), Roberta Sidoti, Sarah Duschka, Shari Wilde, Sharon Lutz, Zebi Bojarski and Larry Doss.

National Trends

The national housing market continues to be a slow market, but not a deteriorating market with both buyers and sellers currently “sitting on the sideline”.  Inventory was still increasing at the end of October but is expected to peak and then decline as we enter the holiday season.  We have both a seller constrained, and a buyer constrained market. So, in a sense, it is a balanced market for now.  Single family median home prices are expected to finish the year with a 2-3% increase over 2022.  Experts believe that the relatively high mortgage interest rates and sales trends may indicate a bearish market for future home prices at the early part of next year but not a significant decline.  Home buyers react more to changes in interest rates than the absolute rate – so stability is good for the housing market and lower interest rates will definitely help the market.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for October 2023

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,702 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October.  Inventory is 4% below that of a year ago (2,825) and it is 2% above the inventory last month (2,636).  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In October 2019 there were 4,285 homes in inventory in the North Bay.  Current inventory is 37% below the 2/19 level.  There were 1,129 sales for the month of October.  This number is 15% above a year ago (981) and 10% above the pace of last month (1,023).  Rates where on the rise at this time last year and sales stalled.  This year, rates have been high, but stable.  Sales were 12% below the number of sales in October 2019 (1,282).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in October was $750,000 which is 4.2% above the $685,000 last October and it is 27% above the $590,000 median price in October 2019.

I’m noticing that the difference between annualized sales and dollar volume is flattening out on a year over year basis.  This might indicate that the worst months of falling activity are behind us, i.e., we may have hit “the bottom” of the current market cycle.  More will be revealed in the coming months.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 39% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  Last year at this time, 43% of homes had experienced a price reduction prior to selling.  For October 2023, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are lower than the national average.  In the region combined, 30% of the homes sold in October had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 30% last month and 36% a year ago.  The numbers were 25% for Napa County, 30% for Sonoma County and 35% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 31% across the region.  This compares to 29% last month and 31% a year ago.  The numbers were 33% in Napa County, 39% in Sonoma County and 20% in Mendocino County.  Thirty percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 59% had a lower selling price than the original list price.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of October stands at 767 homes.  This is 7% above the inventory in October 2022 (717) and it is 2% below the inventory last month (781).  It compares to 1,433 listings in October 2019.  As usually occurs at this time of year, the inventory is starting to drop on a month-to-month basis and will likely do so through early January.  Fifty-two percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (400) currently are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (309) in Sonoma County in October were 2% below the pace of October 2022 (315) and they were 13% below the pace last month (357).  Another uptick in interest rates has likely discouraged some potential homebuyers. There were 397 new sales in October 2019.  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 37 (Oakmont) to 141 (Cloverdale) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 49 days.  The median price of the 344 homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $813,000. This is 14% below the median price in October 2022 ($950,000).  It is 28% above the median price of $634,000 in October 2019. Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 97% of their original list price.  In October, 34% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 30% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Fifty-two percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than ($2,000,000).  There has been a 25% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (228) from 11/1/22 to 10/31/23 compared to 303 closings in the period 11/1/21 to 10/31/22.  The inventory of luxury homes (189) is 20% above the inventory in October 2022 (158 homes) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (196).  The pace of new sales (18) in October this year is 50% above the pace of a year ago (12) and it is 36% below the pace last month (28).  The Days on Market for 21 Luxury Home closings was 101 days this October.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in October was 49 days.  There is a 10.5-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.5-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 91% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 25 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 26 homes in inventory in October 2022 and 30 homes last month.  There were 9 new sales in October compared to 5 a year ago and 9 last month.  There is now a 2.8-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 4 homes that closed in October is 141 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 12 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 11 homes in inventory in October 2022 and 12 homes last month.  There were 6 new sales in October compared to 8 a year ago and 3 last month.  The Days on Market for the 4 homes that closed in October is 111 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 73 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 20% above the inventory in October 2022 (61) and it is 9% below the inventory last month (80).  New sales in October (18) were 125% above the pace of sales in October 2022 (8) and they 14% below the pace of sales last month (21).  There are 4.1-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 18 homes that closed in October is 51 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 15 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of October.  This is 21% below the inventory in October 2022 (19) and it is 12% below the inventory of last month (17).  New sales (14) were 17% above the sales pace of a year ago (12) and they were equal to the pace of last month (14).  There is a 1.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $700,000 for the 15 homes that closed in October.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October is 37 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of October (85) is 6% above the inventory in October 2022 (80) and it is 9% above the inventory last month (78).  There were 37 new sales for the month.  This is 20% below the sales in October 2022 (46) and it is 14% below the sales pace last month (43).  The Petaluma market currently has 2.3 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 40 homes that closed in October was $984,000.  This is 13% above the median price last October ($870,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October is 39 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of October (27) is 7% below the inventory in October 2022 (29) and it is 21% below the inventory last month (34).  There were 24 new sales in Rohnert Park in October.  This sales pace is equal to the 24 sales in October 2022 and it is slightly above the sales last month (23).  There is a 1.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($710,000) of the 18 homes and condominiums that closed in October is 2% below the median price in October a year ago ($725,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in October is 47 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (52) is 11% above the level of October 2022 (47) and it is slightly above the inventory last month (51).  There were 17 new sales for the month of October.  This is 26% below the pace in October 2022 (23) and it is 35% below the pace last month (26).  There is a 3.1-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $450,000 to $750,000 over the past year.  The median was $580,000 for the 23 homes that closed in October.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in October went from listing to pending in 49 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-four percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of October (262) is 4% above the inventory of a year ago (253) and it is 4% below the inventory last month (272).  New sales in October (125) are 2% above the pace of last October (123) and they are 11% below the 141 sales last month.  There is a 2.1-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 148 homes closed in October in Santa Rosa was $700,000 which is 3% above the $678,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October is 46 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Sebastopol is 54 homes.  This is 10% above the inventory last October (49) and it is also 10% above the inventory last month (49).  There were 17 new sales for the month of October.  This is 19% below the pace in October 2022 (21) and it is 13% above the pace last month (15).  There is a 3.2-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 19 homes that closed in Sebastopol in October went from listing to pending in 42 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (120) at the end of October in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 20% above the inventory last October (100) and it is 2% below the inventory of last month (122).  Seventy-five percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (90) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 29 new sales for the month. This is 32% above the 22 sales in October 2022 and it is 28% below the 40 sales last month.  There is a 4.1-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 36 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in October is 55 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 93% of the original listing price.  In October, 20% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 40% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Seventy-one percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of October starts at $3,650,000.  Twenty-one homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 29 in the twelve months prior to that.  This is a decrease of 28%.  In October, there were 2 new sales in this quartile.  There are 30 homes available in this quartile in October 2023 compared to 27 a year ago and 32 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of October is 23 properties.  This is 26% below the inventory in October 2022 (31) and it is just below the 24 homes in inventory last month.  There were 20 sales in the month.  This is just above the pace of sales in October 2022 (19) and it is 9% below the pace of last month (22).  There is a 1.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 21 homes that closed in October 2023 in Windsor is 38 days.  The median price ($829,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in October compares to a median price a year ago ($698,000). 

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of October is 64 homes.  This is 16% above the number of mobile homes available in October 2022 (55) and it is 11% below the number of available mobile homes last month (72).  There were 34 new mobile home sales in October.  This is equal to the pace of sales in October 2022 (34) and it is 6% above the pace of sales last month (32).  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 29 mobile homes closed in October is 59 days and the median price was $220,000 compared to $185,000 a year ago and $218,000 last month.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of October is 357 properties. The current inventory is 24% above the number of lots in October 2022 (288) and it is slightly above the number of available lots last month (353). There were 21 new lot sales in October.  This is 17% above the pace of sales in October 2022 (18) and it is equal to the pace of lot sales last month (21).  There is a 17-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 17 lots closed in October is 181 days and the median price is $350,000 compared to $278,000 a year ago and $400,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of October (339) is 17% above the inventory in October 2022 (291) and it is 4% above the inventory last month (326).  It is 39% below the inventory in October 2019 (552).  Sixty-five percent of the inventory in Napa County (222 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (97) are 16% above the pace of last year (84) and are 4% above the 93 sales last month.  The sales pace is 12% below that of October 2019 (110).  There is a 3.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 52 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 94 homes closed in October in Napa County ($938,000) is essentially equal to the median price of a year ago ($935,000) and it is 30% ahead of the price in October 2019 ($719,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 92% of original list price.  In October, 34% of the homes in Napa County sold for more than their original list price. Twenty-seven percent of the homes had a price reduction prior to selling.  Fifty-seven percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price. 

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,950,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 41% for the number of closings (27) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,950,000) in Napa County for the period 11/1/22 to 10/31/23 compared to 46 closings in the period 11/1/21 to 10/31/22.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in the number of luxury home sales.  There are 85 luxury homes in inventory at the end of October 2023 compared to 73 homes in inventory at the end of October 2022 and 84 last month. There were 4 new Luxury Home sales in October compared to 4 last year and 2 last month.  This creates a 21-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 91% of original asking price and the three homes that closed last month were on the market for an average of 180 days.

American Canyon:  There are 17 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in American Canyon. Last year there were 20 homes in inventory and there were 19 homes in inventory last month.  There were 8 new sales in the month.  This compares to 7 new homes sales last October and 4 new sales last month.  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 4 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 29 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in October ($768,000) compares to a median price of ($713,000) a year ago.  The median price in American Canyon can fluctuate quite a bit from month to month.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $307 last month.  This is in line the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Fifty percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 163 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in the City of Napa. This is 8% above the supply at the end of October 2022 (151) and it is 16% above the inventory at the end of last month (140).  It is 49% below the inventory in 2019 (317).  New sales (70) were 27% above the pace of October 2022 (55) and they were 43% above the pace of last month (49). They were 24% below the 92 sales in October 2019.  There is a 2.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There was a 4-month supply in 2/19.  The Days on Market for the 49 closings last month is 35 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in October was $878,000. This is slightly below the median price of the homes closed in October 2022 ($885,000) and it is 23% ahead of the price in October 2019 ($715,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of October (123) is 17% above the level of 105 in October 2022 and it is 7% above the inventory last month (115).  There were 16 new sales this month compared to 13 a year ago and 19 last month.  There is now a 7.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 14 closings last month is 95 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 84% of original list price.  Forty-eight percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,950,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (40 homes). There were no luxury home (price more than $3,950,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there was one new luxury home sale.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of October (11) compares to 8 in October 2022 and 17 last month.  There were 3 new sales this month compared to 1 a year ago and 1 last month.  The average asking price for the 11 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,856,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of October is 41 homes.  This is 37% above the number of mobile homes available in October 2022 (30) and it is just above the 40 available homes last month.  There were 7 new mobile home sales in October.  This compares to 7 home sales last October 2022 and 11 sales last month.  There is a 5.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 10 mobile homes closed in October is 63 days and the median price was $220,000.  This compares to a median price of $195,000 in October 2022 and $320,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of October stands at 301.  This is 2% above the inventory in October 2022 (296) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (284).  New sales (36) in Mendocino County in October were 29% below the pace of October 2022 (51) and they were also 29% below the pace last month (51).  There now is a 8.4-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 47 homes sold in Mendocino County in October is 104 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in October in Mendocino County was $425,000.  Generally, the median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $400,000 and $600,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 92% of original asking price.  In October, 22% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Forty-eight percent of the homes showed a price reduction prior to selling and 74% of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Ukiah is 58 homes.  This is 7% below the level of October 2022 (62) and it is just above the inventory last month (57).  There were 11 new sales for the month of October.  This is 39% below the 18 sales in October 2022 and it is 42% below the 19 sales last month.  There are 5.3 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 21 homes sold in Ukiah in October is 118 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $450,000 for the homes that closed in October.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of October in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 24 homes.  This compares to 25 homes in October 2022 and 22 homes last month.  There were 3 new sales for the month of October.  This compares to 4 sales in October 2022 and 4 new sales last month.  There is a 8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 3 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in October at a median price of $559,000 and the homes sold in an average of 75 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of October in Hopland and Talmage is 11 homes.  This compares to 10 homes in inventory at the end of October 2022 and 12 homes in inventory last month.  There was 1 new sale in the month of October.  This compares to 1 sale in October 2022 and 1 new sale last month.  There was 1 closing in this area last month.  

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of October stands at 509.  Approximately 33% of the inventory (168 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 13% (68 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is 8% above the inventory in October 2022 (473) and it is 12% above the inventory last month (454).  It compares to an inventory of 570 homes in October 2019. Closed sales (84) in Lake County in October were equal to the pace of October 2022 (84) and they were 24% above the pace last month (68).  There now is a 7-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in October is 38 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in October in Lake County was $326,000. This is essentially equal to the median price in October 2022 ($328,000) and it is 30% above the median price last month ($250,000).  It is 21% above the median sales price of $269,000 in October 2019.  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 95% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  Sid Anderson of our Eureka office (though he lives in Montana) does a wonderful analysis of the real estate markets in Humboldt County which includes our offices in Eureka and Fortuna.  For more detailed information – let me know and I’ll send it to you.  In general, both the number of sales and the median price of the sold properties are down modestly for the year.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (413 homes) is 7% below the 443 homes in October 2022 and it is 1% above the 409 homes in inventory last month.  It is 38% below the 665 homes available in October 2019.  New sales (185) were essentially equal to the number last October (182) and were also like the pace of last month (182).  They were 25% below the 247 sales in October 2019.  There is a 2.2-month supply of inventory at the end of October 2023 compared to a 2.7-month supply in October 2019.  The median price of the 204 homes sold in Marin County in October is $1,403,000.  This is 7% below the median price a year ago ($1,500,000) and it is 13% above the median sales price in October 2019 ($1,240,000).

Wine Country and NorthBay Real Estate Trends in September 2023

Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for September 2023

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 48 closings in September 2023 compared to 73 last September and 66 last month.  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In September 2019 we closed 55 homes.  This September we closed homes with a total value of $18 million compared to $27 million last year, $22 million last month and $35 million in 2/19.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in September was $370,832.

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 87 pending sales with a value of $35 million dollars.  We are 28% behind our pending unit volume last year.  We have 151 active listings with a value of $81 million dollars.  We are 21% behind our listing unit volume for last year.  Our average listing price is $536,000.

Congratulations to our Top Producers for the 3rd Quarter of 2023:

Jessica Spencer – Clearlake – Units and Listings

David Hughes – Clearlake – $ Volume

Paige Hotchkiss – Lakeport – Units and $ Volume

Paige Hotchkiss and Carina De Herrera – Lakeport – Listings 

Parmeeta Ghoman – Petaluma – Units, $ Volume and Listings Sandra Riggs – Santa Rosa – Units and Listings 

Jana Adams – Santa Rosa – $ Volume

Elizabeth Uribe – Sebastopol – Units, $ Volume and Listings

Sheila Deignan – Sonoma – Units and $ Volume

Sheila Deignan and Chelsie Runnings – Sonoma – Listings 

Rianne Pasquariello – St. Helena – Units, $ Volume and Listings

Team Ramos – Ukiah – Units, $ Volume and Listings

Larry Salmon – Fortuna – Units and $ Volume

Malachi Herrera & Annalise Von Borstel – Eureka – Units and Listings

Rollin Trehearne – Eureka – $ Volume

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of September.  Mari Giblin in Santa Rosa led all agents with 6 closings.

Jessica Spencer (4), Carina De Herrera (2), Annalise Von Borstel (2), Barbara Cronick, Team Ramos (3), Dave Hughes (2), Chelsie Runnings (2), Sheila Deignan (2), Liz Uribe, Paige Hotchkiss, Jana Adams (2), Jessica Hooten (4), Erick Rothfeld, Larry Salmon, Isaac Raboy, Julie Lee (2),  Malachi Herrera, Mari Giblin (6), Rollin Treheame, Sandra Riggs (2), Sarah Brown, Robert Davis (2), Norm Brown, Randy Coffman, Nannet Davis, Misty Platt and Stephen Miner (2).

National Trends

FNMA (Federal National Mortgage Association) just released their September 2023 National Housing Survey and it shows a record 84% of consumers thought that it was a bad time to buy a home.  They say in the report that “High mortgage rates surpassed high home prices as the top reason why consumers think it’s a bad time to buy a home.”  This is the first time that the reason has been other than “high home prices”.  Only 17% of those polled thought that mortgage rates would come down in the next 12 months and 23% thought that home prices might fall over the next 12 months.  Many economists have forecast lower interest rates in 2024 but, apparently, consumers don’t think so.  FNMA expects home sales to shrink by 17% in 2023 and to bounce back by about 1% in 2024. 

This is a far cry from the California Association of Realtors (CAR) Economic and Housing Market Forecast that was released in late September.  CAR is forecasting a 23% rise in the number of housing sales in California for 2024 over 2023, 6.2% home appreciation and 30 year fixed mortgage rates at 6%.  Positives in the CAR report are low delinquency rates, a growing market for 1^st time homebuyers and international home buyers, an increase in permits for new housing (particularly ADUs (Additional Dwelling Units on existing home parcels) and an increase in the purchase of vacation homes.  Housing tenure in California (the period of time homeowners stay in their home) has reached an all-time high of 12 years. 

The national housing market continues to be a slow market, but not a deteriorating market with both buyers and sellers currently “sitting on the sideline”.  The recent rise in mortgage interest rates and sales trends may indicate a bearish market for future home prices at the early part of next year but not a significant decline.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for September 2023

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,638 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September.  Inventory is 9% below that of a year ago (2,884) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (2,470).  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In September 2019 there were 4,697 homes in inventory in the North Bay.  That was near the peak for the last decade.  Current inventory is 44% below the 2/19 level.  There were 1,130 sales for the month of September.  This number is 18% above a year ago (997) and 24% above the pace of last month (955).  Rates where on the rise at this time last year and sales stalled.  This year, rates were appearing to be on the rise so perhaps sales were spurred in the month.  Sales were 13% below the number of sales in September 2019 (1,357).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in September was $730,000 which is 4.2% above the $700,000 last September and it is 29% above the $567,000 median price in September 2019 

Checking on the annualized year over year average prices in the region for the first six months of this year the data shows a 1.2% increase.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 38% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  For September 2023, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are lower than the national average.  In the region combined, 30% of the homes sold in September had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 30% last month and 36% a year ago.  The numbers were 25% for Napa County, 30% for Sonoma County and 35% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 31% across the region.  This compares to 29% last month and 31% a year ago.  The numbers were 33% in Napa County, 39% in Sonoma County and 20% in Mendocino County.  Thirty percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 59% had a lower selling price than the original list price.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of September stands at 781 homes.  This is 5% above the inventory in September 2022 (747) and it is 2% above the inventory last month (763).  It compares to 1,579 listings in September 2019.  We may see another uptick in inventory in October before it starts to decline through the holiday season and winter.  Fifty-four percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (418) currently are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (377) in Sonoma County in September were 24% above the pace of September 2022 (303) and they were 20% above the pace last month (313).  There were 460 new sales in September 2019.  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County(Days on Market) varies from 21 (Petaluma) to 107 (Coastal Sonoma) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 36 days.  The median price of the 293 homes closed in September in Sonoma County was $805,000. This is 6% above the median price in September 2022 ($760,000).  It is 30% above the median price of $620,000 in September 2019.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 98% of their original list price.  In September, 39% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 30% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Forty-nine percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than ($2,000,000).  There has been a 28% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (225) from 10/1/22 to 9/30/23 compared to 311 closings in the period 10/1/21 to 9/30/22.  The inventory of luxury homes (198) is 19% above the inventory in September 2022 (166 homes) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (188).  The pace of new sales (32) in September this year is 146% above the pace of a year ago (13) and it is 20% above the pace last month (20).  The Days on Market for 22 Luxury Home closings was 63 days this September.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in September was 38 days.  There is a 6.2-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.1-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 94% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 30 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 24 homes in inventory in September 2022 and 29 homes last month.  There were 10 new sales in September compared to 8 a year ago and 11 last month.  There is now a 3-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 15 homes that closed in September is 45 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 12 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 14 homes in inventory in September 2022 and 12 homes last month.  There were 3 new sales in September compared to 5 a year ago and 5 last month.  The Days on Market for the 2 homes that closed in September is 107 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 80 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 29% above the inventory in September 2022 (62) and it is equal to the inventory last month (80).  New sales in September (24) were 71% above the pace of sales in September 2022 (14) and they 26% ahead of the pace of sales last month (19).  There are 3.3-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 11 homes that closed in September is 58 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 17 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of September.  This is 15% below the inventory in September 2022 (20) and it is just below the inventory of last month (18).  New sales (14) were 180% above the sales pace of a year ago (5) and they were just above the pace of last month (13).  There is a 1.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $632,000 for the 10 homes that closed in September.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September is 24 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of September (78) is 13% below the inventory in September 2022 (90) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (73).  There were 45 new sales for the month.  This is 4% below the sales in September 2022 (47) and it is 13% above the sales pace last month (40).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.7 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 34 homes that closed in September was $933,000. This is 7% above the median price last September ($870,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September is just 21 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of September (34) is 21% above the inventory in September 2022 (28) and it is 17% below the inventory last month (41).  There were 25 new sales in Rohnert Park in September.  This sales pace is 27% below the 34 sales in September 2022 and it is 19% above the sales last month (21).  There is a 1.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($641,000) of the 20 homes and condominiums that closed in September is 6% below the median price in September a year ago ($680,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in September is 34 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (51) is 14% below the level of September 2022 (59) and it is also 14% below the inventory last month (59).  There were 28 new sales for the month of September.  This is 75% above the pace in September 2022 (16) and it is 33% above the pace last month (21).  There is a 1.8-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $450,000 to $750,000 over the past year.  The median was $620,000 for the 22 homes that closed in September.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in September went from listing to pending in 45 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-five percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of September (272) is 10% above the inventory of a year ago (248) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (259).  New sales in September (147) are 41% above the pace of last September (104) and they are 22% above the 121 sales last month.  There is a 1.9-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 118 homes closed in September in Santa Rosa was $730,000 which is 7% above the $685,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September is 35 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Sebastopol is 49 homes.  This is 7% above the inventory last September (46) and it is 17% above the inventory last month (42).  There were 16 new sales for the month of September.  This is 24% below the pace in September 2022 (21) and it is 27% below the pace last month (22).  There is a 3.1-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 18 homes that closed in Sebastopol in September went from listing to pending in 33 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (122) at the end of September in the Sonoma Valley is 17% above the inventory last September (104) and it is 7% above the inventory of last month (114).  Seventy-five percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (92) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 42 new sales for the month. This is 75% above the 24 sales in September 2022 and it is 36% above the 31 sales last month.  There is a 2.9-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 32 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in September is 56 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 93% of the original listing price.  In September, 22% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 38% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Sixty-nine percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of September starts at $3,750,000.  Nineteen homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 30 in the twelve months prior to that.  This is a decrease of 37%.  In September, there were 2s new sales in this quartile.  There are 31 homes available in this quartile in September 2023 compared to 27 a year ago and 26 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of September is 24 properties.  This is 35% below the inventory in September 2022 (37) and it is 20% below the 30 homes in inventory last month.  There were 23 sales in the month.  This is 64% above the pace of sales in September 2022 (14) and it is 92% above the pace of last month (12).  There is a 1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 14 homes that closed in September 2023 in Windsor is 30 days.  The median price ($827,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in September compares to a median price a year ago ($813,000). 

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of September is 72 homes.  This is 39% above the number of mobile homes available in September 2022 (52) and it is 11% above the number of available mobile homes last month (65).  There were 39 new mobile home sales in September.  This is 30% above the pace of sales in September 2022 (30) and it is 63% above the pace of sales last month (24).  There is a 1.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 33 mobile homes closed in September is 61 days and the median price was $217,000 compared to $200,000 a year ago and $219,000 last month.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of September is 353 properties. The current inventory is 23% above the number of lots in September 2022 (288) and it is slightly above the number of available lots last month (351). There were 26 new lot sales in September.  This is 10% below the pace of sales in September 2022 (29) and it is 13% below the pace of lot sales last month (30).  There is a 13.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 21 lots closed in September is 90 days and the median price is $400,000 compared to $343,000 a year ago and $293,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of September (326) is 10% above the inventory in September 2022 (296) and it is 9% above the inventory last month (299).  We may see another uptick in inventory in October before it starts to decline through the holiday season and winter.  It is 44% below the inventory in September 2019 (587).  Sixty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County (220 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (98) are 29% above the pace of last year (76) and are 29% above the 76 sales last month.  The sales pace is 22% below that of September 2019 (126).  Rates where on the rise at this time last year and sales stalled, so it will be interesting to see how the sales perform year over year next month.  There is a 3.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 58 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 69 homes closed in September in Napa County ($880,000) is 2% below the median price of a year ago ($900,000) and it is 15% ahead of the price in September 2019 ($762,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 92% of original list price.  In September, 33% of the homes in Napa County sold for more than their original list price. Twenty-five percent of the homes had a price reduction prior to selling.  Fifty-seven percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price. 

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,950,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 45% for the number of closings (26) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,950,000) in Napa County for the period 9/1/22 to 8/31/23 compared to 47 closings in the period 9/1/21 to 8/31/22.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in the number of luxury home sales.  There are 84 luxury homes in inventory at the end of September 2023 compared to 78 homes in inventory at the end of September 2022 and 75 last month. There were 2 new Luxury Home sales in September compared to 4 last year and 4 last month.  This creates a 42-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 89% of original asking price and the one home that closed last month was on the market for just 15 days.

American Canyon:  There are 17 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in American Canyon. Last year there were 20 homes in inventory and there were 19 homes in inventory last month.  There were 8 new sales in the month.  This compares to 7 new homes sales last September and 4 new sales last month.  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 4 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 29 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in September ($768,000) compares to a median price of ($713,000) a year ago.  The median price in American Canyon can fluctuate quite a bit from month to month.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $307 last month.  This is in line the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Fifty percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 163 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in the City of Napa. This is 8% above the supply at the end of September 2022 (151) and it is 16% above the inventory at the end of last month (140).  It is 49% below the inventory in 2019 (317).  New sales (70) were 27% above the pace of September 2022 (55) and they were 43% above the pace of last month (49). They were 24% below the 92 sales in September 2019.  There is a 2.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There was a 4-month supply in 2/19.  The Days on Market for the 49 closings last month is 35 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in September was $878,000. This is slightly below the median price of the homes closed in September 2022 ($885,000) and it is 23% ahead of the price in September 2019 ($715,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of September (123) is 17% above the level of 105 in September 2022 and it is 7% above the inventory last month (115).  There were 16 new sales this month compared to 13 a year ago and 19 last month.  There is now a 7.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 14 closings last month is 95 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 84% of original list price.  Forty-eight percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,950,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (40 homes). There were no luxury home (price more than $3,950,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there was one new luxury home sale.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of September (11) compares to 8 in September 2022 and 17 last month.  There were 3 new sales this month compared to 1 a year ago and 1 last month.  The average asking price for the 11 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,856,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of September is 40 homes.  This is 67% above the number of mobile homes available in September 2022 (24) and it is 21% above the 33 available homes last month.  There were 11 new mobile home sales in September.  This compares to 8 home sales last September 2022 and 5 sales last month.  There is a 3.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 2 mobile homes closed in September is 166 days and the median price was $338,000.  This compares to a median price of $203,000 in September 2022 and $300,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of September stands at 284.  This is 7% below the inventory in September 2022 (305) and it is 4% below the inventory last month (297).  New sales (55) in Mendocino County in September were 15% ahead of the pace of September 2022 (48) and they were essentially equal to the pace last month (56).  There now is a 5.2-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 46 homes sold in Mendocino County in September is 68 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in September in Mendocino County was $457,000.  Generally, the median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $470,000 and $600,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 96% of original asking price.  In September, 20% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  Thirty-five percent of the homes showed a price reduction at the time they sold.  Seventy-two percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Ukiah is 57 homes.  This is 14% below the level of September 2022 (66) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (64).  There were 20 new sales for the month of September.  This is 25% above the 16 sales in September 2022 and it is 54% above the 13 sales last month.  There are 2.9 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 10 homes sold in Ukiah in September is 66 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $394,000 for the homes that closed in September.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of September in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 22 homes.  This compares to 27 homes in September 2022 and 25 homes last month.  There were 5 new sales for the month of September.  This compares to 9 sales in September 2022 and 7 new sales last month.  There is a 4.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 7 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in September at a median price of $543,000 and the home sold in 91 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of September in Hopland and Talmage is 12 homes.  This compares to 9 homes in inventory at the end of September 2022 and 13 homes in inventory last month.  There was 1 new sale in the month of September.  This compares to no sales in September 2022 and 1 new sale last month.  There was 1 closing in this area last month.  

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of September stands at 509.  Approximately 34% of the inventory (171 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 11% (58 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is 2% above the inventory in September 2022 (501) and it is 4% above the inventory last month (488).  It compares to an inventory of 615 homes in September 2019. Closed sales (68) in Lake County in September were 24% below the pace of September 2022 (90) and they were 23% below the pace last month (88).  There now is a 6.8-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in September is 42 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in September in Lake County was $250,000. This is 10% below the median price in September 2022 ($278,000) and it is 19% below the median price last month ($310,000).  It is 3% below the median sales price of $258,000 in September 2019.  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 95% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  Sid Anderson of our Eureka office (though he lives in Montana) does a wonderful analysis of the real estate markets in Humboldt County which includes our offices in Eureka and Fortuna.  For more detailed information – let me know and I’ll send it to you.  

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (409 homes) is 9% below the 449 homes in September 2022 and it is 24% above the 330 homes in inventory last month.  It is 48% below the 790 homes available in September 2019.  New sales (181) were essentially equal to the number last September (180) and were 11% above the pace of last month (163).  They were 27% below the 249 sales in September 2019.  There is a 2.3-month supply of inventory at the end of September 2023 compared to a 3.2-month supply in September 2019.  The median price of the 151 homes sold in Marin County in September is $1,475,000.  This is slightly above the median price a year ago ($1,463,000) and it is 28% above the median sales price in September 2019 ($1,148,000).

Wine Country and NorthBay Real Estate Trends in August 2023

Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for August 2023

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 66 closings in August 2023 compared to 80 last August and 60 last month.  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In August 2019 we closed 41 homes.  This August we closed homes with a total value of $22 million compared to $40 million last year, $26 million last month and $25 million in 2/19.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in August was $339,625. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 73 pending sales with a value of $35 million dollars.  We are 44% behind our pending unit volume last year.  In August 2019, we had 79 pending sales with a value of $48 million.  We have 182 active listings with a value of $99 million dollars We are 2% ahead of last year in our listing unit volume and 14% ahead of last year in our listing dollar volume.  Our average listing price is $530,000.  In August 2019 we had 96 listings with a value of $79 million.  

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of August.  Sandra Riggs in Santa Rosa led all agents with 7 closings and Jessica Spencer in Clearlake had 5 closings.

Jessica Spencer (5), Carina De Herrera (2), Annalise Von Borstel (3), Brenda Lockhart, Team Ramos (4), Dave Hughes, Darla McKenzie, Sheila Deignan (2), Liz Uribe, Freddie Diaz, Paige Hotchkiss (2), Jana Adams, Jeff Ragan, Jeffrey Seligson, Larry Salmon, Jessica Hooten (3), Julie Lee (2),  Malachi Herrera, Jessica Valencia, Kim Brown, Rianne Pasquariello (2), Mari Giblin (2), Rollin Treheame (3), Sandra Riggs (7), Linda Alioto, Robert Davis, Nicole Moktan, Nicole Berg, Nancy Calderon, Melissa Emami-Rice, Melinda Scalese, Summer Dahlquist, Sharon Lutz and Yvonne Berg.

National Trends

The national inventory of homes for sale generally peaks in July or August.  Last year (2022) inventory continued to rise and peaked in October due to the 1.5% spike in interest rates in August.  Last year inventory was rising at 4% to 6% per week.  This year it is flat or only slightly rising and it seems to be reaching its peak for the year.  Inventory is currently 7% below this time last year.  Buyers are figuring out how to purchase homes in the current interest rate environment.  National mortgage interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan are currently 7.5%, or so.  If they stay in this range, the buyers will continue to purchase.  Buyers are more affected by shifts in interest rates than by the absolute rate.  Many recent forecasts point to lower interest rates by the end of 2023 and lower still in 2024 and 2025.  The expectation has been that the appreciation rate for homes will moderate and be essentially flat or slightly negative for the year on a nationwide basis.  This is expected to carry over into 2024.  As of this week, the median price of all pending sales in the country is 1% higher than the figure from a year ago.  The current pending sales indicate where we will be with closed sales in the months ahead.  Supply is limited and demand is limited.  It is a slow market, but not a deteriorating market.  

North Bay Real Estate Trends for August 2023

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,470 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August.  Inventory is 10% below that of a year ago (2,747) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (2,341).  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In August 2019 there were 4,721 homes in inventory in the North Bay.  That was near the peak for the last decade.  Current inventory is 48% below the 2/19 level.  There were 981 sales for the month of August.  This number is 24% below a year ago (1,290) and 6% below the pace of last month (1,048).  Rates where on the rise at this time last year and sales stalled, so it will be interesting to see how the sales perform year over year next month.  Sales were 32% below the number of sales in August 2019 (1,438).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in August was $730,000 which is equal to $730,000 last August and $569,000 in August 2019 (+28%). 

Checking on the annualized year over year average prices in the region for the first six months of this year the data shows a 1.2% increase.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 36% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  For August 2023, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are lower than the national average.  In the region combined, 30% of the homes sold in August had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 27% last month and 37% a year ago.  The numbers were 27% for Napa County, 25% for Sonoma County and 39% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 29% across the region.  This compares to 37% last month and 37% a year ago.  The numbers were 32% in Napa County, 44% in Sonoma County and 11% in Mendocino County.  Thirty percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 58% had a lower selling price than the original list price.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of August stands at 763 homes.  This is 9% above the inventory in August 2022 (698) and it is 9% above the inventory last month (701).  It compares to 1,596 listings in August 2019.  We may see another uptick in inventory in September and October before it starts to decline through the holiday season and winter.  Fifty-one percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County (391) currently are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (327) in Sonoma County in August were 19% below the pace of August 2022 (402) and they were 12% below the pace last month (373).  There were 494 new sales in August 2019.  There is a 2.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County(Days on Market) varies from 25 (Rohnert Park) to 98 (Healdsburg) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 44 days.  The median price of the 327 homes closed in August in Sonoma County was $810,000. This is 3% above the median price in August 2022 ($783,000).  It is 21% above the median price of $670,000 in August 2019.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 99% of their original list price.  In August, 44% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 25% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Forty-five percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than ($2,000,000).  There has been a 30% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (221) from 9/1/22 to 8/31/23 compared to 314 closings in the period 9/1/21 to 8/31/22.  The inventory of luxury homes (188) is 29% above the inventory in August 2022 (146 homes) and it is equal to the inventory last month (188).  The pace of new sales (19) in August this year is 14% below the pace of a year ago (22) and it is 24% below the pace last month (25).  The Days on Market for 20 Luxury Home closings was 81 days this August.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in August was 44 days.  There is a 9.9-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.3-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 29 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 24 homes in inventory in August 2022 and 28 homes last month.  There were 11 new sales in August compared to 8 a year ago and 10 last month.  There is now a 2.6-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 6 homes that closed in August is 46 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 12 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 15 homes in inventory in August 2022 and 14 homes last month.  There were 5 new sales in August compared to 2 a year ago and 2 last month.  The Days on Market for the 1 home that closed in August is 22 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 80 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 40% above the inventory in August 2022 (57) and it is 3% above the inventory last month (78).  New sales in August (18) were 13% above the pace of sales in August 2022 (16) and they 29% ahead of the pace of sales last month (14).  There are 4.4-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 19 homes that closed in August is 91 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 18 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of August.  This is 6% above the inventory in August 2022 (17) and it is 67% ahead of the inventory of last month (11).  New sales (13) were 41% below the sales pace of a year ago (22) and they were 24% below the pace of last month (17).  There is a 1.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $785,000 for the 17 homes that closed in August.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in August is 34 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of August (73) is 4% below the inventory in August 2022 (76) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (68).  There were 42 new sales for the month.  This is 24% below the sales in August 2022 (55) and it is 17% above the sales pace last month (36).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.7 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 37 homes that closed in August was $950,000.  This is 8% above the median price last August ($880,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in August is 44 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of August (41) is 37% above the inventory in August 2022 (30) and it is 28% above the inventory last month (32).  There were 22 new sales in Rohnert Park in August.  This sales pace is 37% below the 35 sales in August 2022 and it is 33% below the sales last month (33).  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($733,000) of the 25 homes and condominiums that closed in August is 4% below the median price in August a year ago ($763,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in August is 25 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (59) is 16% above the level of August 2022 (51) and it is equal to the inventory last month (59).  There were 21 new sales for the month of August.  This is 13% below the pace in August 2022 (24) and it is slightly below the pace last month (22).  There is a 2.8-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $450,000 to $750,000 over the past year.  The median was $585,000 for the 18 homes that closed in August.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in August went from listing to pending in 38 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-four percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of August (259) is 17% above the inventory of a year ago (222) and it is 22% above the inventory last month (213).  New sales in August (131) are 17% below the pace of last August (157) and they are 16% above the 156 sales last month.  There is a 2-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 129 homes closed in August in Santa Rosa was $756,000 which is 5% above the $719,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in August is 41 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August in Sebastopol is 42 homes.  This is 14% below the inventory last August (49) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (44).  There were 22 new sales for the month of August.  This is 27% below the pace in August 2022 (30) and it is equal to the pace last month (22).  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 21 homes that closed in Sebastopol in August went from listing to pending in 58 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (114) at the end of August in the Sonoma Valley is 19% above the inventory last August (96) and it is 2% below the inventory of last month (116).  Seventy percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (80) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 32 new sales for the month. This is 7% above the 30 sales in August 2022 and it is 11% below the 36 sales last month.  There is a 3.6-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 32 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in August is 39 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 96% of the original listing price.  In August, 39% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 23% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Fifty-two percent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of August starts at $3,500,000.  Twenty-seven homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 37 in the twelve months prior to that.  This is a decrease of 27%.  In August, there was 1 new sale in this quartile.  There are 29 homes available in this quartile in August 2023 compared to 29 a year ago and 26 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of August is 30 properties.  This is 19% below the inventory in August 2022 (37) and it is 20% above the 25 homes in inventory last month.  There were 12 sales in the month.  This is 64% below the pace of sales in August 2022 (33) and it is 48% below the pace of last month (23).  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 21 homes that closed in August 2023 in Windsor is 39 days.  The median price ($800,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in August compares to a median price a year ago ($733,000) – a 9% increase.

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of August is 65 homes.  This is 28% above the number of mobile homes available in August 2022 (51) and it is 5% above the number of available mobile homes last month (62).  There were 27 new mobile home sales in August.  This is equal to the pace of sales in August 2022 (27) and it is 25% below the pace of sales last month (36).  There is a 2.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 29 mobile homes closed in August is 64 days and the median price was $215,000 compared to $205,000 a year ago and $155,000 last month.  

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of August is 351 properties. The current inventory is 22% above the number of lots in August 2022 (288) and it is 3% above the number of available lots last month (340). There were 28 new lot sales in August.  This is 10% below the pace of sales in August 2022 (31) and it is 47% above the pace of lot sales last month (19).  There is a 12.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 20 lots closed in August is 99 days and the median price is $293,000 compared to $331,000 a year ago and $296,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of August (299) is 6% above the inventory in August 2022 (281) and it is 3% above the inventory last month (291).  We may see another uptick in inventory in September and October before it starts to decline through the holiday season and winter.  It is 49% below the inventory in August 2019 (592).  Sixty-five percent of the inventory in Napa County (195 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (78) are 21% below the pace of last year (99) and are 16% below the 93 sales last month.  The sales pace is 39% below that of August 2019 (127).  Rates where on the rise at this time last year and sales stalled, so it will be interesting to see how the sales perform year over year next month.  There is a 3.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 52 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 82 homes closed in August in Napa County ($1,040,000) is slightly ahead of the median price of a year ago ($1.025,000) and it is 52% ahead of the price in August 2019 ($685,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 94% of original list price.  In August, 32% of the homes in Napa County sold for more than their original list price. Twenty-seven percent of the homes had a price reduction prior to selling.  Fifty-one percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price. 

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,750,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 46% for the number of closings (29) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,950,000) in Napa County for the period 9/1/22 to 8/31/23 compared to 54 closings in the period 9/1/21 to 8/31/22.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in the number of luxury home sales.  There are 75 luxury homes in inventory at the end of August 2023 compared to 74 homes in inventory at the end of August 2022 and 75 last month. There were 5 new Luxury Home sales in August compared to 3 last year and 3 last month.  This creates a 15-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 86% of original asking price and the 1 home that closed last month was on the market for just 18 days.

American Canyon:  There are 19 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of August in American Canyon. Last year there were 17 homes in inventory and there were 12 homes in inventory last month.  There were 4 new sales in the month.  This compares to 10 new homes sales last August and 11 new sales last month.  There is a 4.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  Higher interest rates may have tempered the market in American Canyon.  The Days on Market for 7 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was just 13 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in August ($699,000) compares to a median price of ($725,000) a year ago.  The median price in American Canyon can fluctuate quite a bit from month to month.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $332 last month.  This is in line the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 140 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of August in the City of Napa. This is essentially equal to the supply at the end of August 2022 (141) and it is 4% above the inventory at the end of last month (135).  It is 56% below the inventory in 2019 (319).  New sales (50) were 28% below the pace of August 2022 (69) and they were 19% below the pace of last month (62). They were 44% below the 89 sales in August 2019.  There is a 2.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There was a 3.6-month supply in 2/19.  The Days on Market for the 56 closings last month is 38 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in August was $1,103,000. This is 13% above the median price of the homes closed in August 2022 ($980,000) and it is 59% ahead of the price in August 2019 ($695,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of August (115) is 11% above the level of 104 in August 2022 and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (116).  There were 20 new sales this month compared to 20 a year ago and 16 last month.  There is now a 5.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 14 closings last month is 106 days.  Over the past four months, Up Valley homes are selling at roughly 87% of original list price.  Forty-seven percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,750,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (35 homes). There were no luxury home (price more than $3,750,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were 3 new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of August (17) compares to 12 in August 2022 and 14 last month.  There were 2 new sales this month compared to 1 a year ago and 2 last month.  The average asking price for the 17 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,862,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of August is 33 homes.  This is 57% above the number of mobile homes available in August 2022 (21) and it is slightly above the 32 available homes last month.  There were 9 new mobile home sales in August.  This compares to 11 home sales last August 2022 and 8 sales last month.  There is a 3.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 14 mobile homes closed in August is 74 days and the median price was $300,000.  This compares to a median price of $257,000 in August 2022 and $257,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of August stands at 297.  This is 2% below the inventory in August 2022 (303) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (299).  New sales (61) in Mendocino County in August were 5% below the pace of August 2022 (64) and they were 22% above the pace last month (50).  There now is a 4.9-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 46 homes sold in Mendocino County in August is 60 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in August in Mendocino County was $517,000.  Generally, the median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $475,000 and $600,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 93% of original asking price.  In August, 11% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  39% of the homes showed a price reduction at the time they sold.  Seventy-eight percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August in Ukiah is 64 homes.  This is equal to the level of August 2022 (64) and it is 12% above the inventory last month (57).  There were 13 new sales for the month of August.  This is 48% below the 25 sales in August 2022 and it is 13% below the 15 sales last month.  There are 4.9 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 11 homes sold in Ukiah in August is 53 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $560,000 for the homes that closed in August.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of August in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 25 homes.  This compares to 34 homes in August 2022 and 26 homes last month.  There were 8 new sales for the month of August.  This compares to 8 sales in August 2022 and 3 new sales last month.  There is a 3.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 3 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in August at a median price of $570,000 and the home sold in 78 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of August in Hopland and Talmage is 13 homes.  This compares to 12 homes in inventory at the end of August 2022 and 10 homes in inventory last month.  There was 1 new sale in the month of August.  This compares to one sale in August 2022 and 1 new sale last month.  There was 1 closing in this area last month.  

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of August stands at 521.  Approximately 32% of the inventory (168 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 11% (56 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is 3% above the inventory in August 2022 (504) and it is 9% above the inventory last month (476).  It compares to an inventory of 621 homes in August 2019.  Closed sales (89) in Lake County in August were 9% above the pace of August 2022 (82) and they were 3% below the pace last month (92).  There now is a 7.1-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in August is 39 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in August in Lake County was $310,000. This is slightly above the median price in August 2022 ($309,000) and it is equal to the median price last month ($310,000).  It is 24% above the median sales price of $251,000 in August 2019.  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 95% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  Sid Anderson of our Eureka office (though he lives in Montana) does a wonderful analysis of the real estate markets in Humboldt County which includes our offices in Eureka and Fortuna.  For more detailed information – let me know and I’ll send it to you.  

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (330 homes) is 5% below the 346 homes in August 2022 and it is 2% above the 324 homes in inventory last month.  It is 56% below the 745 homes available in August 2019.  New sales (166) were 22% below the number last August (213) and were 2% below the pace of last month (169).  They were 25% below the 222 sales in August 2019.  There is a 2-month supply of inventory at the end of August 2023 compared to a 3.4-month supply in August 2019.  The median price of the 165 homes sold in Marin County in August is $1,275,000.  This is 7% below the median price a year ago ($1,376,000) and it is 22% above the median sales price in August 2019 ($1,048,000).

Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends in July 2023

Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for July 2023

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 60 closings in July 2023 compared to 66 last July and 57 last month.  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In July 2019 we closed 60 homes.  This July we closed homes with a total value of $26 million compared to $35 million last year, $21 million last month and $31 million in 2/19.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in July was $433,600. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 88 pending sales with a value of $36 million dollars.  In July 2019, we had 44 pending sales with a value of $42 million.  We are 18% behind our pending unit volume last year.  We have 168 active listings with a value of $89 million dollars compared to 112 listings with a value of $93 million in 2019.  We are 14% behind last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $530,000.

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of July.  Sheila Diegnan in Sonoma led all agents with 6 closings and Jessica Spencer in Clearlake had 5 closings.

Jessica Spencer (5), Carina De Herrera, Mara Kahn, Chelsie Runnings, Halla Hammoudeh, Misty Platt (2), Cheryl Marinaro (4), Elizabeth Uribe (4), Issac Raboy (3), Isaac Raboy (2), Kendra Martin, Dave Hughes (3), Dave Smith, Sheila Deignan (6), Jose Mendoza (2), Paige Hotchkiss (3), Kathleen Rogers, Larry Doss, Lisa Ladanyl (2),  Malachi Herrera (3), Maria Flores, Rianne Pasquariello (2),Robert Davis (2), Rollin Treheame, Sandra Riggs (4), Stephen Miner, Summer Dahlquist (2), Theresa Kessenich, Thomas Harmon and Zebi Bojarsky.

National Trends

The end of June is traditionally the “turning point” for housing across the nation.  Purchases tend to decelerate, inventory increases and prices decline through the balance of the summer.  Inventory generally peaks in July or August.  Last year (2022) inventory continued to rise and peaked in October.  This was due to the increase in interest rates in July of last year.  Last year inventory was rising at 4% to 6% per week.  This year it is flat or only slightly rising.  Inventory is currently 10% below this time last year.  Current trends indicate that inventory might end the year 15% lower.  Buyers are now figuring out how to purchase homes in the current interest rate environment.  National mortgage interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan are currently around 7%.  If they stay in this range, the buyers will continue to purchase.  Most recent forecasts point to lower interest rates by the end of 2023 and lower still in 2024 and 2025.  Mortgage rates may reach into the mid 4% range by 2025.  The expectation has been that the appreciation rate for homes will moderate and be essentially flat or slightly negative for the year on a nationwide basis.  As of mid-July, the median price of all pending sales in the country is 3% higher than the figure from a year ago.  The current pending sales indicate where we will be with closed sales in the months ahead.  Based on current trends – real estate values may have a slight overall uptick by yearend.  Zillow is predicting a 6% increase in real estate values in 2024 while other prognosticators predict lower rates.  Buyers can benefit from stable prices now and they can “rent” the current mortgage rate and refinance down the road.  Some lenders even offer a free refi at a lower rate if the market softens.  

North Bay Real Estate Trends for July 2023

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,341 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July.  Inventory is 26% below that of a year ago (3,163) and it is 2% above the inventory last month (2,304).  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In July 2019 there were 4,818 homes in inventory in the North Bay.  That was near the peak for the last decade.  Current inventory is 51% below the 2/19 level.  There were 1,101 sales for the month of July.  This number is 3% below a year ago (1,133) and slightly below the pace of last month (1,110).  It is 23% below the number of sales in July 2019 (1,477).  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in July was $750,000 compared to $742,000 (+1%) last July and $580,000 in July 2019 (+29%). 

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 34% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  For July 2023, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are lower than the national average.  In the region combined, 27% of the homes sold in July had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 24% last month and 27% a year ago.  The numbers were 27% for Napa County, 18% for Sonoma County and 36% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 37% across the region.  This compares to 41% last month and 35% a year ago.  The numbers were 45% in Napa County, 51% in Sonoma County and 16% in Mendocino County.  Twenty-seven percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 51% had a lower selling price than the original list price.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of July stands at 701 homes.  This is 17% below the inventory in July 2022 (842) and it is 2% below the inventory last month (714).  It compares to 1,671 listings in July 2019.  Fifty-five percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County at this time (386) are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (394) in Sonoma County in July were 8% above the pace of July 2022 (364) and they were 9% above the pace last month (363). There were 475 new sales in July 2019.  There is a 1.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County(Days on Market) varies from 23 (Oakmont) to 44 (Healdsburg) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 35 days.  The median price of the 379 homes closed in July in Sonoma County was $824,000. This is 13% below the median price in July 2022 ($950,000).  It is 31% above the median price of $630,000 in July 2019.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 99% of their original list price.  In July, 51% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 18% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Thirty-four percent of the homes closed last month had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than ($2,200,000).  There has been a 30% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (190) from 8/1/22 to 7/31/23 compared to 271 closings in the period 8/1/21 to 7/31/22.  The inventory of luxury homes (176) is 17% above the inventory in July 2022 (150 homes) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (181).  The pace of new sales (25) in July this year is 39% above the pace of a year ago (18) and it is 11% below the pace last month (28).  The Days on Market for 22 Luxury Home closings was 43 days this July.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in July was 35 days.  There is a 7-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.8-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 97% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 28 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 25 homes in inventory in July 2022 and 29 homes last month.  There were 11 new sales in July compared to 9 a year ago and 12 last month.  There is now a 3.1-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 9 homes that closed in July is 32 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 14 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 10 homes in inventory in July 2022 and 13 homes last month.  There were 2 new sales in July compared to 2 a year ago and 1 last month.  The Days on Market for the 2 homes that closed in July is 35 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 78 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 22% above the inventory in July 2022 (64) and it is 13% above the inventory last month (69).  New sales in July (18) were 6% above the pace of sales in July 2022 (17) and they equal to the pace of sales last month (18).  There are 4.3-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 14 homes that closed in July is 44 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 11 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of July.  This is 61% below the inventory in July 2022 (28) and it is 21% below the inventory of last month (14).  New sales (18) were 80% ahead the sales pace of a year ago (10) and they were 5% below the pace of last month (19).  For the sixth month in a row the sales exceeded the number of listings available at the beginning of the month in Oakmont.  There is a 0.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  Oakmont is one of the hottest markets in the North Bay.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $832,000 for the 18 homes that closed in July.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 23 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of July (68) is 33% below the inventory in July 2022 (101) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (69).  There were 36 new sales for the month.  This is 16% below the sales in July 2022 (43) and it is 28% below the sales pace last month (50).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.9 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 40 homes that closed in July was $943,000.  This is slightly above the median price last July ($940,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 29 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of July (32) is 22% below the inventory in July 2022 (41) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (29).  There were 33 new sales in Rohnert Park in July.  This sales pace is slightly below the 34 sales in July 2022 and it is 14% above the sales last month 29).  There is a 1.0-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($759,000) of the 27 homes and condominiums that closed in July is 1% above the median price in July a year ago ($750,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 30 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (59) is equal to the level of July 2022 (59) and it is 11% above the inventory last month (53).  There were 24 new sales for the month of July.  This is 33% above the pace in July 2022 (18) and it is 11% below the pace last month (27).  There is a 2.5-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $450,000 to $750,000 over the past year.  The median was $658,000 for the 26 homes that closed in July.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in July went from listing to pending in 42 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of July (213) is 24% below the inventory of a year ago (279) and it is 10% below the inventory last month (236).  New sales in July (163) are 10% above the pace of last July (148) and they are 23% above the 133 sales last month.  There is a 1.3-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 125 homes closed in July in Santa Rosa was $760,000 which is 4% above the $737,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July is 33 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Sebastopol is 44 homes.  This is 32% below the inventory last July (65) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (40).  There were 23 new sales for the month of July.  This is 5% above the pace in July 2022 (22) and it is 44% above the pace last month (16). There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 15 homes that closed in Sebastopol in July went from listing to pending in 36 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (116) at the end of July in the Sonoma Valley is essentially equal to the inventory last July (115) and it is 3% below the inventory of last month (120).  Sixty-nine percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (79) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 39 new sales for the month. This is 8% above the 36 sales in July 2022 and it is 9% below the 43 sales last month.  There is a 3 -month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 37 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in July is 43 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 95% of the original listing price.  In July, 33% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 25% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Fifty-threepercent of the homes in the Valley had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of July starts at $3,250,000.  Twenty-eight homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 48 in the twelve months prior to that.  This is a decrease of 42%.  In July, there were 5 new sales in this quartile.  There are 29 homes available in this quartile in July 2023 compared to 34 a year ago and 32 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of July is 25 properties.  This is 43% below the inventory in July 2022 (44) and it is 14% below the 29 homes in inventory last month.  There were 23 sales in the month.  This is 35% above the pace of sales in July 2022 (17) and it is slightly above the pace of last month (22).  There is a 1.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 15 homes that closed in July 2023 in Windsor is 41 days.  The median price ($825,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in July compares to a median price a year ago ($785,000) – a 5% increase.

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of July is 62 homes.  This is 22% above the number of mobile homes available in July 2022 (51) and it is 3% above the number of available mobile homes last month (60).  There were 39 new mobile home sales in July.  This is 18% above the pace of sales in July 2022 (33) and it is 9% below the pace of sales last month (43).  There is a 1.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 31 mobile homes closed in July is 74 days and the median price was $153,000 compared to $211,000 a year ago and $202,000 last month.  The activity in the mobile home market is strong right now.

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of July is 340 properties. The current inventory is 14% above the number of lots in July 2022 (299) and it is 3% above the number of available lots last month (330). There were 22 new lot sales in July.  This is 57% above the pace of sales in July 2022 (14) and it is 29% below the pace of lot sales last month (31).  There is a 15.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 17 lots closed in July is 147 days and the median price is $300,000 compared to $310,000 a year ago and $295,000 last month.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of July (291) is 3% below the inventory in July 2022 (301) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (306).  It is 50% below the inventory in July 2019 (581).  Sixty-nine percent of the inventory in Napa County (201 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (96) are 3% above the pace of last year (93) and are 17% above the 82 sales last month.  The sales pace is 14% below that of July 2019 (112).  There is a 3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 56 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 88 homes closed in July in Napa County ($864,000) is 11% below the median price of a year ago ($968,000) and it is 29% ahead of the price in July 2019 ($669,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 94% of original list price.  In July, 45% of the homes in Napa County sold for more than their original list price. Twenty-seven percent of the homes had a price reduction prior to selling.  Forty-seven percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price. 

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $3,950,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 34% for the number of closings (33) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $3,950,000) in Napa County for the period 8/1/22 to 7/31/23 compared to 50 closings in the period 8/1/21 to 7/31/22.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in the number of luxury home sales.  There are 72 luxury homes in inventory at the end of July 2023 compared to 67 homes in inventory at the end of July 2022 and 83 last month. There were 2 new Luxury Home sales in July compared to 2 last year and 1 last month.  This creates a 36-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 85% of original asking price and the 4 homes that closed last month were on the market for 94 days.

American Canyon:  There are 12 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of July in American Canyon. Last year there were 25 homes in inventory and there were 10 homes in inventory last month.  There were 12 new sales in the month.  This compares to 5 new homes sales last July and 11 new sales last month.  There is a 1.0-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 10 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 25 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in July ($653,000) compares to a median price of ($785,000) a year ago.  The median price in American Canyon can fluctuate quite a bit from month to month.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $366 last month.  This is in line the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-six percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 135 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of July in the City of Napa. This is 14% below the supply at the end of July 2022 (157) and it is 7% below the inventory at the end of last month (145).  It is 57% below the inventory in 2019 (315).  New sales (64) were slightly ahead of the pace of July 2022 (63) and they 7% ahead of the pace of last month (60). They were 16% below the 76 sales in July 2019.  There is a 2.1-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There was a 4.1-month supply in 2/19.  The Days on Market for the 59 closings last month is 40 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in July was $865,000. This is 11% below the median price of the homes closed in July 2022 ($975,000) and it is 30% ahead of the price in July 2019 ($667,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of July (116) is 14% above the level of 102 in July 2022 and it is 5% below the inventory last month (122).  There were 16 new sales this month compared to 24 a year ago and 11 last month.  There is now a 7.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 18 closings last month is 95 days.  Forty-nine percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $3,950,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (35 homes). There were four luxury home (price more than $4,200,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and there were two new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of July (14) compares to 14 in July 2022 and 13 last month.  There were 2 new sales this month compared to 3 a year ago and one last month.  The average asking price for the 14 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,695,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of July is 32 homes.  This is 33% above the number of mobile homes available in July 2022 (24) and it is 14% above the 28 available homes last month.  There were 9 new mobile home sales in July.  This compares to 8 home sales last July 2022 and 12 sales last month.  There is a 3.6-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 7 mobile homes closed in July is 35 days and the median price was $257,000.  This compares to a median price of $187,000 in July 2022 and $198,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of July stands at 299.  This is 12% below the inventory in July 2022 (340) and it is 5% above the inventory last month (286).  New sales (59) in Mendocino County in July were 28% above the pace of July 2022 (46) and they were 9% above the pace last month (54).  There now is a 5.1-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 56 homes sold in Mendocino County in July is 70 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in July in Mendocino County was $543,000.  Generally, the median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $475,000 and $600,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 93% of original asking price.  In July, 16% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  36% of the homes showed a price reduction at the time they sold.  Seventy-three percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Ukiah is 57 homes.  This is 28% below the level of July 2022 (79) and it is 16% above the inventory last month (49).  There were 21 new sales for the month of July.  This is 62% above the 13 sales in July 2022 and it is 17% above the 18 sales last month.  There are 2.7 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 17 homes sold in Ukiah in July is 71 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $570,000 for the homes that closed in July.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of July in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 26 homes.  This compares to 38 homes in July 2022 and 26 homes last month.  There were 7 new sales for the month of July.  This compares to 6 sales in July 2022 and 4 new sales last month.  There is a 3.7-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 3 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in July at a price of $564,000 and the home sold in 83 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of July in Hopland and Talmage is 10 homes.  This compares to 14 homes in inventory at the end of July 2022 and 8 homes in inventory last month.  There were 2 new sales in the month of July.  This compares to no sales in July 2022 and 1 new sale last month.  There was 1 closing in this area last month.  

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of July stands at 501.  Approximately 32% of the inventory (159 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 11% (57 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is slightly below the inventory in July 2022 (509) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (467).  It compares to an inventory of 598 homes in July 2019.  Closed sales (92) in Lake County in July were 9% below the pace of July 2022 (101) and they were 5% below the pace last month (97).  There now is a 6.7-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in July is 29 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in July in Lake County was $309,500. This is 3% above the median price in July 2022 ($300,000) and it is 11% below the median price last month ($347,000).  It is 35% above the median sales price of $229,000 in July 2019.  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 97% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  Sid Anderson of our Eureka office (though he lives in Montana) does a wonderful analysis of the real estate markets in Humboldt County which includes our offices in Eureka and Fortuna.  For more detailed information – let me know and I’ll send it to you.  Here’s his highlights for the month of July:

July is usually the highwater mark for sold homes in any year in Humboldt County.  This year was no exception as there were 97 sold homes for the month – the highest for any month this year.  This compares to 100 sold homes last year and 93 last month.  Comparing to 2019, there were 139 homes sold then.  The median price of the sold homes this July was also the highest for the year – $465,000.  This is 3% less than a year ago ($480,000), 4% higher than last month ($448,000) and 43% higher than in 2019 ($325,000).

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (324 homes) is 27% below the 444 homes in July 2022 and it is just below the 325 homes in inventory last month.  It is 57% below the 762 homes available in July 2019.  New sales (170) were 20% below the number last July (213) and were 29% below the pace of last month (238).  They were 27% below the 232 sales in July 2019.  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory at the end of July 2023 compared to a 3.3-month supply in July 2019.  The median price of the 191 homes sold in Marin County in July is $1,475,000.  This is slightly above the median price a year ago ($1,465,000) and it is 31% above the median sales price in July 2019 ($1,125,000).

Wine Country and NorthBay Real Estate Trends July 2023

Wine Country and Northbay Real Estate Trends 

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for June 2023

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Ming Tree enjoyed 57 closings in June 2023 compared to 82 last June and 64 last month.  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In June 2019 we closed 33 homes.  This June we closed homes with a total value of $21 million compared to $35 million last year, $28 million last month and $22 million in 2/19.  The average selling price of the properties sold by BHGRE|WCG in June was $377,000. 

BHGRE|WCG-MT currently has 89 pending sales with a value of $40 million dollars.  In June 2019, we had 61 pending sales with a value of $42 million.  We are 22% behind our pending unit volume last year while we are equal to last year’s dollar volume.  We have 155 active listings with a value of $98 million dollars compared to 116 listings with a value of $104 million in 2019.  We are 10% behind last year in our listing unit volume.  Our average listing price is $632,000.

Congratulations to our Top Producers for the 2^nd Quarter of 2023:

Jessica Spence – Clearlake – Units, $ Volume and Listings

Carina De Herrera – Lakeport – Units and Listings

Cheyenne Blue – Lakeport – $ Volume

Parmeeta Ghoman – Petaluma – Units, $ Volume and Listings Mari Giblin – Santa Rosa – Units and Listings 

Misty Platt – Santa Rosa – $ Volume

Elizabeth Uribe – Sebastopol – Units

Dorothy Cronquest – Sebastopol – $ Volume

Jeffrey Seligson – Sebastopol – Listings

Sheila Deignan – Sonoma – Units and Listings

Isaac Raboy – Sonoma – $ Volume

Linda Alioto – St. Helena – Units, $ Volume and Listings

Team Ramos – Ukiah – Units, $ Volume and Listings

Taran Pitzer – Fortuna – Units and $ Volume

Malachi Herrera – Eureka – Units, $ Volume and Listings

Congratulations to the following BHGRE|Wine Country Group-Ming Tree agents who had one or more closings in the month of June.  Jessica Spencer in Clearlake lead all agents with 7 closings and Mari Giblin in Santa Rosa had 6 closings.

Jessica Spencer (7), Annalise Von Borstel (2), Carina De Herrera, Mari Giblin (6), Chelsie Runnings, Brenda Lockhart, Larry Doss (2), Jessica Hooten, Misty Platt (2), Cheryl Marinaro (3), Cheyenne Blue, Dan Gallagher, Sandra Riggs (2), Issac Raboy (3), Jana Adams (3), Kendra Martin, Dave Hughes (2), Jeffrey Seligson (3), Linda Alioto (2), Keziah Watt and Shari Wilde, Sheila Deignan (2), Parmeeta Ghoman (2), Maria Flores, Paige Hotchkiss, Roberta Sidoti, Sandra Riggs (2), Taran Pitzer, Tricia Wilwerding, Luna-Notson/Gonzalez, Malachi Herrera (2) and Yvonne Berg.

National Trends

The end of June is traditionally the “turning point” for housing across the nation.  Purchases tend to decelerate, inventory increases and prices decline through the balance of the summer.  Inventory generally peaks in July or August.  Last year (2022) inventory continued to rise and peaked in October.  This was due to the increase in interest rates in June of last year.  Last year inventory was rising at 4% to 6% per week.  This year it is flat or only slightly rising.  Current trends indicate that the 2023 inventory will be below 2022 inventory on a year over basis by mid-July and might end the year 15% lower.  Buyers are now figuring out how to purchase homes in the current interest rate environment.  National mortgage interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan are currently around 7%.  If they stay in this range, the buyers will continue to purchase.  Most recent forecasts point to lower interest rates by the end of 2023 and lower still in 2024 and 2025.  Mortgage rates may reach into the mid 4% range by 2025.  The expectation has been that the appreciation rate for homes will moderate and be essentially flat or slightly negative for the year on a nationwide basis.  As of mid-June, the median price of all pending sales in the country is 3.6% higher than the figure from a year ago.  The current pending sales indicate where we will be with closed sales in the months ahead.  Based on current trends – real estate values may have a slight overall uptick by yearend.  So, buyers can benefit from stable prices now and they can “rent” the current mortgage rate and refinance down the road.  The bubble of millennial real estate purchasers will be coming along in the next year or two and will surpass the bubble of baby boomers back in the 1970s.  This year has been tough for real estate pros and perhaps the worst is behind us.  The future looks bright.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for June 2023

For all the areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 2,304 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June.  Inventory is 30% below that of a year ago (3,274) and it is 8% above the inventory last month (2,136).  Since 2020, 2021 and 2022 were all unusual real estate markets, some observers are suggesting comparing current numbers to those of 2019.  In June 2019 there were 4,867 homes in inventory in the North Bay.  That was near the peak for the last decade.  Current inventory is 53% below the 2/19 level.  There were 1,161 sales for the month of June.  This number is 9% below a year ago (1,279) and 2% below the pace of last month (1,182).  It is 20% below the number of sales in June 2019 (1,447).  One difference now is that this time last year, sales were starting to fall.  They were off 14% from May to June last year.  This year they are down 2%.  The median price of homes sold across our North Bay region in June was $720,000 compared to $775,000 (-2%) last June and $568,000 in June 2019 (+27%). 

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past couple of years.  Across the country, approximately 32% of the homes have a price reduction prior to their selling date.  For June 2023, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, our ratios are lower than the national average.  In the region combined, 24% of the homes sold in June had a price reduction prior to selling.  This compares to 24% last month and 20% a year ago.  The numbers were 24% for Napa County, 16% for Sonoma County and 33% for Mendocino County.  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling for more than the original asking price was 41% across the region.  This compares to 40% last month and 44% a year ago.  The numbers were 43% in Napa County, 57% in Sonoma County and 22% in Mendocino County.  Twenty-four percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 49% had a lower selling price than the original list price.  

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of June stands at 714 homes.  This is 23% below the inventory in June 2022 (927) and it is 11% above the inventory last month (641).  It compares to 1,627 listings in June 2019.  Fifty-five percent of the available homes for sale in Sonoma County at this time (391) are priced at $1,000,000 or more.  New sales (374) in Sonoma County in June were 15% below the pace of June 2022 (442) and they were 1% below the pace last month (379).  There were 475 new sales in June 2019.  There is a 1.9-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County(Days on Market) varies from 29 (Rohnert Park and Petaluma) to 43 (Healdsburg) days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The average Days on Market for all the County is 37 days.  The median price of the 379 homes closed in June in Sonoma County was $808,000. This is 1% below the median price in June 2022 ($820,000).  It is 27% above the median price of $635,000 in June 2019.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at 99% of their original list price.  In June, 57% of the homes in Sonoma County sold at a price more than the original asking price and 16% of the homes had a reduction in price before they sold.  Sixteen percent of the homes in the region had a price reduction prior to selling while 35% had a lower selling price than the original list price.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price more than ($2,250,000).  There has been a 37% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (169) from 7/1/22 to 6/30/23 compared to 270 closings in the period 7/1/21 to 6/30/22.  The inventory of luxury homes (179) is 13% above the inventory in June 2022 (159 homes) and it is 1% above the inventory last month (177).  The pace of new sales (28) in June this year is 33% above the pace of a year ago (21) and it is 65% above the pace last month (17).  The Days on Market for 19 Luxury Home closings was 48 days this June.  The Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in June was 37 days.  There is a 6.4-month supply of inventory of luxury properties based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.9-month supply in the overall Sonoma County market.  Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 97% of original list price.

Cloverdale:  There are 29 homes and condominiums available in Cloverdale.  This compares to 35 homes in inventory in June 2022 and 22 homes last month.  There were 12 new sales in June compared to 9 a year ago and 5 last month.  There is now a 2.4-month supply of inventory in Cloverdale based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 6 homes that closed in June is 46 days.  

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 13 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This compares to 8 homes in inventory in June 2022 and 12 homes last month.  There was 1 new sale in June compared to 3 a year ago and 4 last month.  The Days on Market for the 3 homes that closed in June is 36 days.  

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 69 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  This is 7% below the inventory in June 2022 (74) and it is equal to the inventory last month (69).  New sales in June (19) were 17% below the pace of sales in June 2022 (23) and they 14% below the pace of sales last month (22).  There are 3.6-months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 21 homes that closed in June is 43 days.  

Oakmont:  There are 14 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of June.  This is 55% below the inventory in June 2022 (31) and it is 75% above the inventory of last month (8).  New sales (18) were equal to the sales pace of a year ago (18) and they were 29% above the pace of last month (14).  For the fifth month in a row the sales exceeded the number of listings available at the beginning of the month in Oakmont.  There is a 0.8-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high $500,000’s up to $849,000.  The median price was $810,000 for the 17 homes that closed in June.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in June is 39 days.  

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of June (69) is 33% below the inventory in June 2022 (103) and it is 11% above the inventory last month (62).  There were 51 new sales for the month.  This is 18% below the sales in June 2022 (62) and it is 11% above the sales pace last month (46).  The Petaluma market currently has 1.4 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 51 homes that closed in June was $975,000.  This is 7% above the median price last June ($909,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in June is 29 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of June (29) is 31% below the inventory in June 2022 (42) and it is 21% above the inventory last month (24).  There were 29 new sales in Rohnert Park in June.  This sales pace is 19% below the 36 sales in June 2022 and it is 31% below the sales last month 42).  There is a 1.0-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($698,000) of the 43 homes and condominiums that closed in June is 4% below the median price in June a year ago ($730,000).  Days on Market for the homes that closed in June is 29 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (53) is 10% below the level of June 2022 (59) and it is 4% above the inventory last month (51).  There were 29 new sales for the month of June.  This is 4% above the pace in June 2022 (28) and it is 53% above the pace last month (19).  There is a 1.8-month supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace.  The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $450,000 to $750,000 over the past year.  The median was $600,000 for the 21 homes that closed in June.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in June went from listing to pending in 41 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-three percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of June (236) is 26% below the inventory of a year ago (328) and it is 19% above the inventory last month (199).  New sales in June (135) are 23% below the pace of last June (175) and they are 14% below the 157 sales last month.  There is a 1.7-month supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 158 homes closed in June in Santa Rosa was $748,000 which is slightly below the $755,000 price a year ago.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in June is 40 days.  

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Sebastopol is 40 homes.  This is 44% below the inventory last June (71) and it is 6% above the inventory last month (38).  There were 17 new sales for the month of June. This is 41% below the pace in June 2022 (29) and it is 6% below the pace last month (18).  There is a 2.4-month supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 15 homes that closed in Sebastopol in June went from listing to pending in 33 days.

Sonoma Valley:  The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (120) at the end of June in the Sonoma Valley is equal to the inventory last June (120) and it is essentially equal to the inventory of last month (119).  75 percent of the available properties in the Sonoma Valley (90) are priced at $1,000,000, or more.  There were 46 new sales for the month. This is 18% above the 39 sales in June 2022 and it is 53% ahead of the 30 sales last month.  There is a 2.6-month supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  The average Days on Market for the 26 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in June is 35 days.  The closings in the month had a selling price equal to 95% of the original listing price.  In June, 42% of the homes in the Sonoma Valley sold at a price more than the original list price and 23% had a reduction in price before they sold.  Twenty-three percent of the homes in the Valley had a price reduction prior to selling while 50% had a lower selling price than the original list price.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of June starts at $3,550,000.  Twenty homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 34 in the twelve months prior to that.  In June, there were 7 new sales in this quartile.  There are 30 homes available in this quartile in June 2023 compared to 31 a year ago and 29 last month.  

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of June is 29 properties.  This is 41% below the inventory in June 2022 (49) and it is 4% ahead of the 28 homes in inventory last month.  There were 22 sales in the month.  This is 19% below the pace of sales in June 2022 (27) and it is equal to the pace of last month (22).  There is a 1.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The days on market for the 22 homes that closed in June 2023 in Windsor is 39 days.  The median price ($893,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in June compares to a median price a year ago ($800,000) – a 12% increase.

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of June is 60 homes.  This is slightly above the number of mobile homes available in June 2022 (59) and it is 16% below the number of available mobile homes last month (71).  There were 47 new mobile home sales in June.  This is 42% above the pace of sales in June 2022 (33) and it is 21% ahead of the pace of sales last month (39).  There is a 1.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 39 mobile homes closed in June is 60 days and the median price was $205,000 compared to $184,000 a year ago and $215,000 last month.  The activity in the mobile home market is strong right now.

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County:  The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of June is 330 properties. The current inventory is 5% above the number of lots in June 2022 (314) and it is 8% above the number of available lots last month (307). There were 33 new lot sales in June.  This is 44% above the pace of sales in June 2022 (23) and it is 32% ahead of the pace of lot sales last month (25).  There is a 10-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 25 lots closed in June is 101 days and the median price is $295,000 compared to $478,000 a year ago.   

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of June (306) is 7% below the inventory in June 2022 (330) and it is 13% above the inventory last month (272).  It is 47% below the inventory in June 2019 (577).  Seventy percent of the inventory in Napa County (214 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (87) are 16% below the pace of last year (103) and are essentially equal to the 88 sales last month.  The sales pace is 38% below that of June 2019 (140).  There is a 3.5-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the homes closing in Napa County is currently 50 days.  In our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status.  On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the 85 homes closed in June in Napa County ($810,000) is 6% below the median price of a year ago ($912,000) and it is 15% ahead of the price in June 2019 ($705,000).  Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.  In June, 43% of the homes in Napa County sold for more than their original list price. Twenty-four percent of the homes had a price reduction prior to selling.  Forty-five percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price. 

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market currently begins at $4,200,000 in Napa County.  There has been a decrease of 45% for the number of closings (27) of Luxury Homes (sales price more than $4,200,000) in Napa County for the period 7/1/22 to 6/30/23 compared to 49 closings in the period 7/1/21 to 6/30/22.  This continues a trend where we see a decrease in the number of luxury home sales.  There are 76 luxury homes in inventory at the end of June 2023 compared to 66 homes in inventory at the end of June 2022 and 67 last month. There was 1 new Luxury Home sale in June compared to 9 last year and 3 last month.  This creates a 76-month supply of inventory.  Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 87% of original asking price and the 2 homes that closed last month were on the market for 365 days.

American Canyon:  There are 10 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of June in American Canyon. Last year there were 19 homes in inventory and there were 11 homes in inventory last month.  There were 10 new sales in the month.  This compares to 12 new homes sales last June and 8 new sales last month.  There is a 1.0-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for 12 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 45 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in June ($715,000) compares to a median price of ($765,000) a year ago.  The median price in American Canyon can fluctuate quite a bit from month to month.  The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $333 last month.  This is in line the $300 to $400 per square foot range where the sales have been over the past several years.

Napa:  Forty-seven percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 145 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of June in the City of Napa. This is 19% below the supply at the end of June 2022 (179) and it is 17% above the inventory at the end of last month (124).  It is 56% below the inventory in 2019 (326).  New sales (63) were 6% below the pace of June 2022 (67) and they were equal to the pace of last month (63). They were 36% below the 99 sales in June 2019.  There is a 2.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There was a 3.3-month supply in 2/19.  The Days on Market for the 63 closings last month is 40 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in June was $838,000. This is 5% below the median price of the homes closed in June 2022 ($879,000) and it is 11% ahead of the price in June 2019 ($757,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of June (122) is 6% above the level of 115 in June 2022 and it is 8% above the inventory last month (113).  There were 13 new sales this month compared to 21 a year ago and 14 last month.  There is now a 9.4-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 7 closings last month is 142 days.  Fifty-seven percent of the Luxury Market inventory (price more than $4,200,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (44 homes). There was one luxury home (price more than $4,200,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and there was one new luxury home sale.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Angwin at the end of June (13) compares to 14 in June 2022 and 12 last month.  There was one new sale this month compared to one a year ago and none last month.  The average asking price for the 13 homes on the market in Angwin is $3,895,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County:  The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of June is 28 homes.  This is 33% above the number of mobile homes available in June 2022 (21) and it is 8% above the 26 available homes last month.  There were 12 new mobile home sales in June.  This compares to 7 home sales last June 2022 and 11 sales last month.  There is a 2.3-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 11 mobile homes closed in June is 72 days and the median price was $225,000.  This compares to a median price of $265,000 in June 2022 and $268,000 last month.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of June stands at 286.  This is 16% below the inventory in June 2022 (339) and it is 2% below the inventory last month (291).  New sales (64) in Mendocino County in June were 39% above the pace of June 2022 (46) and they were 28% above the pace last month (50).  There now is a 4.5-month supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace.  The average Days on Market for the 45 homes sold in Mendocino County in June is 80 days.  For our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending.  The median price of the homes closed in June in Mendocino County was $520,000.  Generally, the median price of sold homes in Mendocino has been between $475,000 and $600,000.  Over the past four months, Mendocino County homes are selling at roughly 93% of original asking price.  In June, 22% of the homes in Mendocino County sold at a price greater than the original asking price.  33% of the homes showed a price reduction at the time they sold.  Sixty-eight percent of homes closed at a price less than their original list price.

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Ukiah is 49 homes.  This is 42% below the level of June 2022 (85) and it is 17% below the inventory last month (59).  There were 20 new sales for the month of June.  This is 54% above the 13 sales in June 2022 and it is 122% above the 9 sales last month.  There are 4.5 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 9 closings last month.  The average Days on Market for the 10 homes sold in Ukiah in June is 75 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $450,000 to $640,000. The median price was $500,000 for the homes that closed in June.  

Redwood Valley and Calpella:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of June in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 26 homes.  This compares to 38 homes in June 2022 and 27 homes last month.  There were 5 new sales for the month of June.  This compares to 5 sales in June 2022 and 4 new sales last month.  There is a 5.2-month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $725,000.  There were 4 closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in June at a price of $548,000 and the home sold in 69 days. 

Hopland and Talmage:  The inventory of homes for sale at the end of June in Hopland and Talmage is 8 homes.  This compares to 15 homes in inventory at the end of June 2022 and 8 homes in inventory last month.  There was 1 new sale in the month of June.  This compares to 1 sale in June 2022 and 3 new sales last month.  There were 2 closings in this area last month.  The median price of the 2 closed homes was $878,000 and they closed in 108 days.

Lake County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Lake County at the end of June stands at 504.  Approximately 31% of the inventory (157 homes) is in the communities of Clearlake and another 11% (54 homes) are in Lakeport.  The countywide inventory is slightly above the inventory in June 2022 (501) and it is 16% above the inventory last month (434).  It compares to an inventory of 585 homes in June 2019.  Closed sales (97) in Lake County in June were 6% below the pace of June 2022 (103) and they were 3% above the pace last month (94).  There now is a 6.8-month supply of inventory in Lake County based on the existing sales pace.  The median Days on Market for the homes sold in Lake County in June is 34 days.  Usually “Days on Market” are traced from listing date to pending date, so the closing date would be somewhat longer.  The median price of the homes closed in June in Lake County was $347,000. This is 10% below the median price in June 2022 ($387,000) and it is 7% below the median price last month ($372,000).  It is 29% above the median sales price of $268,000 in June 2019.  The homes sold in Lake County last month sold at 96% of original list price.

Humboldt County:  Sid Anderson of our Eureka office (though he lives in Montana) does a wonderful analysis of the real estate markets in Humboldt County which includes our offices in Eureka and Fortuna.  For more detailed information – let me know and I’ll send it to you.  Here’s his highlights for the month of June:

DATA IS SHOWING AN UPSWING IN THE MARKET:
The number of homes sold in June was the highest since October of 2022
The Average sold price showed an increase of 13% over last year     due to 6 homes that sold for over One Million Dollars
The Median Sold price showed a minuscule decrease of .6% compared to last year.
The Median Sold price trend is showing an increase over prior months.
The three month Median Sold price is predicting the Median Sold price to increase the rest of the year.

Marin County:  Marin County is often considered a “feeder” county to our North Bay Wine Country markets.  Marin County’s inventory (325 homes) is 39% below the 530 homes in June 2022 and it is 7% below the 349 homes in inventory last month.  It is 60% below the 806 homes available in June 2019.  New sales (240) were 8% below the number last June (261) and were 2% above the pace of last month (236).  They were 16% below the 286 sales in June 2019.  There is a 1.4-month supply of inventory at the end of June 2023 compared to a 2.8-month supply in June 2019.  The median price of the 233 homes sold in Marin County in June is $1,443,000.  This is 15% below the median price a year ago ($1,700,000) and it is 19% above the median sales price in June 2019 ($1,215,000).